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The Iowa Hawkeyes (3-1, 0-1 Big Ten) welcome the Michigan State Spartans (2-2, 0-1) to Kinnick Stadium Saturday. Kickoff is set for 7:30 p.m. ET (NBC). Below, we analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Michigan State vs. Iowa odds, and make our expert college football picks and predictions.
The Hawkeyes opened their Big Ten play last week with a 31-0 loss at No. 7 Penn State, failing to cover as a 14-point underdog. Iowa is 2-2 against the spread (ATS) and 1-3 O/U. It is led by former Michigan QB Cade McNamara, who has 4 TDs and 3 INTs. Iowa’s strength is in its defense, having allowed 14 or fewer points in each of its first 3 games.
Michigan State also opened conference play last week. It lost 31-9 to the Maryland Terrapins, closing as a 7-point underdog. The Spartans are 2-2 ATS. It has yet to cover as an underdog. This will be the Spartans’ 1st road game of the season too. QB Noah Kim captains the offense, but RB Nathan Carter, who has 369 rushing yards in 4 games, is the most lethal big-play weapon.
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Michigan State at Iowa odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Friday at 12:28 p.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Michigan State +340 (bet $100 to win $340) | Iowa -450 (bet $450 to win $100)
- Against the spread (ATS): Michigan State +11.5 (-110) | Iowa -11.5 (-110)
- Over/Under (O/U): 36.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
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Michigan State at Iowa picks and predictions
Prediction
Iowa 24, Michigan State 7
Moneyline
PASS.
There’s just no value here. Michigan State has been obliterated in 2 straight weeks and isn’t worth taking at +340. The expensive Iowa moneyline -450 isn’t worth backing either.
There’s nothing to see here.
Against the spread
BET IOWA -11.5 (-105).
Michigan State went on the road and lost 31-9 to Maryland last week. The Spartans are 0-2 straight up and ATS against Power 5 opponents. They were just 1-2-2 ATS on the road last season.
Iowa took down Big 12 side Iowa State and covered as a 3.5-point favorite in a 20-13 win in Week 2. The Hawkeyes were destroyed last week which might have been more about how good Penn State is and less about Iowa’s shortcomings.
The Hawkeyes have the better defense and better quarterback. Back them to cover. Take IOWA -11.5 (-110).
Over/Under
LEAN UNDER 36.5 (-110).
If there’s one thing both sides can agree on, it is that scoring points is overrated. Michigan State has averaged 8 points per game against Power 5 foes. It is 1-3 O/U this season.
Iowa has topped 24 points just once this season and has held its opponent to 14 or fewer in 3 of 4 games. It is also 1-3 O/U through the first 4 weeks of the season.
Expect a slow-paced game and back UNDER 36.5 (-110).
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