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The Miami Marlins (54-92) and Washington Nationals (65-80) begin a 4-game series Thursday. First pitch from Nationals Park is slated for 6:45 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s MLB odds around the Marlins vs. Nationals odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Nationals lead 8-1
The Nationals rebounded from a 12-0 loss to the Atlanta Braves Tuesday with an impressive 5-1 victory on Wednesday in the 2nd game of a 6-game homestand. Washington has had Miami’s number this season, winning 8 of their 9 meetings and outscoring them 57-24.
The Marlins head into this series after a 3-game sweep by the Pirates in Pittsburgh to start a 7-game road trip. Miami was outscored 12-7, continuing their road struggles this season, where they’re just 26-45.
Marlins at Nationals projected starters
RHP Darren McCaughan vs. LHP Mitchell Parker
McCaughan (0-0, 7.40 ERA) makes his 3rd start and his 8th appearance. He has a 1.85 WHIP, 3.7 BB/9 and 5.2 K/9 in 24 1/3 IP.
- Last start: No-decision, 4 2/3 IP, 3 R (2 ER), 6 H, 0 BB, 4 K in 9-5 home victory against Philadelphia Phillies Saturday
- 2024 road splits: 0-0, 10.66 ERA (12 2/3 IP, 15 ER (16 R), 2.13 WHIP, 3.6 K/9 in 3 games
- Has never pitched against the Nationals
Parker (7-9, 4.43 ERA) makes his 27th start. He has a 1.31 WHIP, 2.6 BB/9 and 8.1 K/9 in 136 IP.
- Last start: No-decision, 3 1/3 IP, 4 ER, 6 H, 4 BB, 2 K in 8-6 victory at the Pittsburgh Pirates Saturday
- 2024 road splits: 5-4, 3.04 ERA (77 IP, 26 ER (30 R), 1.08 WHIP, 7.8 K/9 in 13 starts
- 2024 vs. Marlins: 1-0, 1.80 ERA (10 IP, 2 ER), 1.40 WHIP, 5.4 K/9 in 2 starts
Who’s going yard? Here’s a breakdown of today’s best home run props with our top picks. Include the BetMGM bonus code SBWIRE to score a $1,500 first-bet offer.
Marlins at Nationals odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list of MLB odds. Lines last updated Wednesday at 11:28 p.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Marlins +145 (bet $100 to win $145) | Nationals -175 (bet $175 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Marlins +1.5 (-140) | Nationals -1.5 (+115)
- Over/Under (O/U): 9.5 (O: +100 | U: -120)
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Marlins at Nationals picks and predictions
Prediction
Nationals 7, Marlins 2
Moneyline
PASS.
I’ve got the Nationals (-175) taking care of business on Thursday, but I’m not paying that price.
Run line/Against the spread
BET NATIONALS -1.5 (+115).
The Nationals are in a prime spot to cover the -1.5 run line against the Marlins. Washington has owned this series all season, winning 8 of the 9 matchups — all of them by multiple runs in outscoring Miami by a combined 33 runs. The Marlins’ struggles against left-handed pitching add to the appeal, as they’ve hit just .229 against southpaws with an abysmal 10-40 record. With lefty Parker on the mound and Miami’s road woes (26-45), this game sets up perfectly for another Washington win by at least 2 runs.
Over/Under
PASS.
I’ve got no feel on this one. It’s been 5-5 O/U in their last 10 meetings.
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