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The Washington Nationals (62-72) welcome the Miami Marlins (66-67) to Nationals Park Thursday for the opener of a 4-game series. First pitch is set for 7:05 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Marlins vs. Nationals odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Miami leads 7-2
The Nationals are 6-4 over their last 10 games and are 26 games back of the Atlanta Braves in the NL East. Washington is 33-36 at home this season. It lost 2 of 3 to the Toronto Blue Jays to start the week, including a 7-0 defeat in Wednesday’s finale.
The Marlins were swept in a 2-game series by the Tampa Bay Rays, losing Wednesday 3-0 and Tuesday 11-2. They are 2-8 over their last 10 games and 28-36 on the road. Miami sits 21 1/2 games behind the Braves.
Marlins at Nationals projected starters
LHP Braxton Garrett vs. RHP Joan Adon
Garrett (7-5, 3.96 ERA) makes his 26th start and 27th appearance. He has a 1.17 WHIP, 1.4 BB/9 and 9.1 K/9 through 134 IP.
- Last start: Loss, 6 IP, 3 ER, 7 H, 0 BB, 3 K in a 7-4 home loss over the Nationals Friday
- 2023 away stats: 4-2, 2.86 ERA in 63 IP in 12 starts
Adon (2-0, 5.25 ERA) makes his 5th start and 7th appearance. He has a 1.17 WHIP, 2.3 BB/9 and 7.5 K/9 through 24 IP.
- Last start: Win, 6 IP, 0 ER, 3 H, 0 BB, 3 K in a 7-4 road win over the Marlins Friday
- 2023 home stats: 0-0, 9.90 ERA in 10 IP in 2 starts and 1 relief appearance
Marlins at Nationals odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 8:15 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Marlins -160 (bet $160 to win $100) | Nationals +135 (bet $100 to win $135)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Marlins -1.5 (+100) | Nationals +1.5 (-120)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)
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Marlins at Nationals picks and predictions
Prediction
Nationals 5, Marlins 3
Moneyline
BET NATIONALS (+135).
These teams have played three 3-game series this season, and the Marlins have swept 2 of them. However, Miami has been awful over its last 13 games, posting just a 3-10 record. The Marlins have lost Garrett’s last 2 starts as well and are also 28-36 on the road.
Washington is 29-36 at home so slightly better. Simply put, the Nationals have been the better team as of late and are 6-4 over their last 10. Adon looked dominated in his last start against Miami. Washington is also better than Miami after a loss (35-36 compared to 30-36) which both teams are in this situation.
Take NATIONALS (+135).
Run line/Against the spread
PASS.
The Marlins aren’t juicy enough at -1.5 (+100) to consider — I would want to see them at least at (+120). The Nationals seem like a better moneyline play here given the odds.
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Over/Under
BET UNDER 8.5 (-105).
The Nationals are 2-3 O/U over their last 5 games and 63-66-5 O/U on the season. They went Under in 2 of their last 3 games against the Marlins as well. The total is 3-5-1 O/U in the two sides’ 9 games in 2023.
Miami is 59-70-4 O/U this season and 1-3 O/U over its last 4 games. It has scored 2 or fewer in 4 straight games. It is 2-8 O/U over its last 10 games. Put it all together and take the UNDER 8.5 (-105).
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