The Miami Marlins (38-31) and Washington Nationals (27-40) open a 3-game set Friday at Nationals Park. First pitch is scheduled for 7:05 p.m. ET (MLB Network). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Marlins vs. Nationals odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Marlins lead 3-0
The Marlins won 4-1 as +158 underdogs at the Seattle Mariners Wednesday and we predicted the moneyline and total correctly on that game. Miami avoided suffering a 3rd straight loss and is 5 games behind the Atlanta Braves for the lead in the NL East.
The Nationals won 4-1 as +174 underdogs at the Houston Astros Thursday. Washington has won just 2 of its last 10 games and is 5th in the NL East, 15 games back of the Braves.
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Marlins at Nationals projected starters
RHP Sandy Alcántara vs. RHP Trevor Williams
Alcántara (2-5, 4.75 ERA) makes his 14th start. He has a 1.18 WHIP, 2.9 BB/9 and 7.7 K/9 in 83 1/3 innings.
- Last start: No-decision, 7 IP, 1 ER, 3 H, 2 BB, 4 K in a 5-1 win at Chicago White Sox Saturday
- Has not recorded a loss in 4 straight starts
- Career vs. Nationals: 6-6, 3.21 ERA (84 IP, 30 ER), 67 H, 9 HR, 29 BB, 62 K in 13 starts
Williams (3-4, 4.11 ERA) makes his 14th start. He has a 1.36 WHIP, 2.9 BB/9 and 7.1 K/9 in 65 2/3 innings.
- Last start: Win, 5 IP, 2 ER, 7 H, 1 BB, 6 K in a 6-2 win at Braves Sunday
- Has lost 2 of his last 3 starts
- Career vs. Marlins: 1-2, 3.75 ERA (36 IP, 15 ER), 35 H, 5 HR, 4 BB, 36 K in 5 starts and 5 relief appearances
Marlins at Nationals odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 11:08 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Marlins -160 (bet $160 to win $100) | Nationals +135 (bet $100 to win $135)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Marlins -1.5 (+100) | Nationals +1.5 (-120)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -105 | U: -105)
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Marlins at Nationals picks and predictions
Prediction
Marlins 6, Nationals 4
Moneyline
PASS.
The Nationals haven’t won back-to-back games since May 31-June 2. Miami (-160) should win, but there’s no need to pay the higher price on the ML when the Marlins should win by multiple runs. Bet the run line and/or the total instead.
Run line/Against the spread
BET MARLINS -1.5 (+100).
Miami has won 9 of its last 12 games and 8 of those wins were by multiple runs. Washington is just 3-13 in its last 16 home games after a road trip of 7 or more days and 8 of its last 10 losses have been by 2 or more runs.
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Over/Under
BET OVER 8.5 (-105).
The Over is 5-2 in Miami’s last 7 road games vs. teams with a losing record.
The Over has hit in 9 of Washington’s last 13 at home and should cash again Friday as the Marlins bounce back offensively after only scoring 8 runs in a 3-game set vs. the Mariners.
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