The Miami Marlins (33-40) wrap up their 3-game series with the St. Louis Cardinals (43-34) Wednesday at Busch Stadium with the 1st pitch scheduled for 7:45 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Marlins vs. Cardinals odds with MLB picks and predictions.
St. Louis won the 1st two games of this series 5-1 Monday and 3-0 Tuesday. Both teams are 5-5 straight up (SU) in their last 10 games.
The Cardinals lead the season series with the Marlins 4-1 and St. Louis has a plus-12 run differential in those meetings.
Marlins at Cardinals projected starters
RHP Sandy Alcantara vs. RHP Andre Pallante
Alcantara is 7-3 with a 1.95 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, 2.4 BB/9 and 8.0 K/9 in 106 1/3 IP over 15 starts.
- Last start: Lost 5-3 Friday at home vs. the New York Mets with 7 IP, 5 R (4 ER), 6 H, 2 HR, 0 BB and 4 K.
- 2022 vs. the Cardinals: One start, a no-decision in Miami’s 2-0 home loss April 20 with 8 IP, 0 R, 4 H, 1 BB and 6 K.
Pallante is 2-3 with a 2.03 ERA, 1.38 WHIP, 3.9 BB/9 and 5.7 K/9 in 48 2/3 IP over 4 starts and 18 relief appearances.
- Last start: Lost 3-0 Friday at home vs. the Chicago Cubs with 6 IP, 3 ER, 7 H, 1 HR, 3 BB and 2 K.
- 2022 home splits: 2-2 with a 2.57 ERA (28 IP, 8 ER), 1.46 WHIP, 3 HR and 5.5 K/9 in 2 starts and 10 relief appearances.
Marlins at Cardinals odds and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 11:01 a.m. ET.
- Money line (ML): Marlins -125 (bet $125 to win $100) | Cardinals +102 (bet $100 to win $102)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Marlins -1.5 (+135) | Cardinals +1.5 (-170)
- Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -130 | U: +105)
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Marlins at Cardinals picks and predictions
Prediction
Marlins 5, Cardinals 2
Money line
BET the MARLINS (-125) because they’ve taken heavy sharp action, Alcantara is money in these spots and Miami’s lineup is more productive vs. right-handed pitching.
Miami’s ML opened at -105 but has been steamed up to the current number because roughly 85% of the cash is on the Marlins, according to Pregame.com.
Also, Miami is 6-1 SU with a plus-55.6% return on investment (ROI) as road favorites with Alcantara on the bump since the beginning of last season.
Furthermore, Miami’s lineup outperforms St. Louis’s against right-handed pitching in several advanced metrics such as wRC+ (110-106), wOBA (.321-.316), hard-hit rate (28.1-27.7%) and runs per 9 (4.90-4.61).
BET 1 unit on the MARLINS (-125).
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Run line/Against the spread
LEAN MARLINS -1.5 (+135) since they are 6-1 RL with a plus-66.0% ROI in the aforementioned circumstances and Miami has a much more reliable bullpen than the Cardinals +1.5 (-170).
I’d prefer to put an extra quarter-unit on Miami’s ML than sprinkle on the RL but there’s a little value in the MARLINS -1.5 (+135).
Over/Under
LEAN UNDER 7.5 (+105) only because the Over 7.5 (-130) appears to be the sharper play based on the pricing.
But, there’s a “Pros vs. Joe’s” scenario in the betting market with more cash being on the Under and more bets placed on the Over, per Pregame.com. Since sharps put up a lot more dough than your average Joe so it’s wiser to follow the money column of the betting splits.
It’s only a LEAN UNDER 7.5 (+105) because Miami’s ML is my favorite look in Marlins-Cardinals.
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