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The Miami Marlins (1-9) and New York Yankees (8-2) meet Monday as they swing into a 3-game set in the Bronx. First pitch at Yankee Stadium is scheduled for 6:05 p.m. ET (MLB Network). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Marlins vs. Yankees odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: First meeting; Miami won last year’s series 2-1
The Marlins snapped a lid-lifting 9-game losing streak Sunday when they defeated the St. Louis Cardinals 10-3. Miami’s 10 runs were more than the club had scored over its previous 4 games.
The Yankees took 2 of 3 from the Toronto Blue Jays over the weekend. New York was shut out Friday, but bounced back with 17 runs over the weekend.
Marlins at Yankees projected starters
LHP Jesus Luzardo vs. LHP Nestor Cortes
Luzardo (0-1, 4.35 ERA) makes his 3rd start. He has a 0.97 WHIP, 3.5 BB/9 and 11.3 K/9 in 10 1/3 IP.
- Last outing: Loss, 5 1/3 IP, 3 ER, 4 H, 2 BB, 5 K in 3-1 loss vs. Los Angeles Angels Tuesday
- Career vs. Yankees: 0-2, 24.55 ERA (3 2/3 IP, 10 ER), 10 H, 3 BB, 2 K
Cortes (0-1, 6.30 ERA) is tabbed for his 3rd start. He owns a 1.70 WHIP, 3.6 BB/9 and 6.3 K/9 in 10 IP.
- Last outing: Loss, 5 IP, 3 ER, 8 H, 2 BB, 2 K in 7-0 loss at Arizona Diamondbacks Tuesday
- Has never faced the Marlins
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Marlins at Yankees odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 7:16 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline: Marlins +135 (bet $100 to win $135) | Yankees -160 (bet $160 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Marlins +1.5 (-150) | Yankees -1.5 (+125)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -105 | U: -115)
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Marlins at Yankees picks and predictions
Prediction
Marlins 5, Yankees 4
Moneyline
The Marlins have legitimately been as bad as their record indicates so far. That is to say underlying analytics do not paint a rosier picture than 4.00 runs per game vs. 6.50 RPG allowed.
And the Yankees thus far appear to have fixed its offensive woes from a year ago when they ranked 25th in MLB run scoring (4.15 RPG). With RF Juan Soto (.873 OPS) and SS Anthony Volpe (1.093 OPS) providing from level-swing, gap-to-gap prowess, the Yanks have cut their strikeout rate while averaging a more representative 4.90 RPG.
That being said, starting pitching makes baseball betting unique. And Luzardo is the better starter. Cortes just is not the same pitcher he was in 2021-22 when he clocked a 2.61 ERA, 0.98 WHIP over 50 games. The New York port-sider has been running into a lot of bats and does not have the same excellent control he had a couple years back.
There is a lot of gravity in baseball. It keeps clubs from playing .100 baseball at one end and .818 ball at the other.
Peg MIAMI +135 as being worthy of a partial-unit play.
Run line/Against the spread
A Miami lean, but we should want a price more in the -140 or -145 range. AVOID.
Over/Under
Both offenses have been hampered by some ball-in-play bad luck so far. And even being the more likable starter in this match-up, Luzardo has allowed plenty of loud contact so far.
The Yanks suffered a key bullpen loss the other day when RHP Jonathan Loaisaga went down with a season-ending injury. That hole in the relief corps plus some potential unavailability elsewhere in the bullpen dings the New York run-prevention sector of this one.
FanDuel Sportsbook has the best total to leverage: BACK THE OVER 8 (-118).
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