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The Miami Marlins (58-100) and the Minnesota Twins (82-76) wrap up a 3-game interleague series Thursday at Target Field. First pitch is scheduled for 7:40 p.m. ET (ESPN+). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s MLB odds around the Marlins vs. Twins odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Tied 1-1
The Marlins suffered their 100th loss of the season in Wednesday’s 8-3 setback as the Over (8.5) cashed. Miami is just 4-11 in the past 15 games since Sept. 9, while going 2-7 in the previous 9 outings on the road. The Under is 5-1-1 in the past 7 tries on the road, too.
The Twins halted a 3-game losing streak with the 8-3 victory. Minnesota is still alive for a postseason spot, 2 games out of a Wild Card spot, while sitting just a half-game ahead of the Seattle Mariners with 4 to play.
Miami is 15-27 in 42 interleague games this season, while Minnesota is 18-27 in 45 games against the NL.
Marlins at Twins projected starters
RHP Valente Bellozo vs. RHP David Festa
Bellozo (3-4, 3.82 ERA) makes his 13th career start. He has a 1.30 WHIP, 2.8 BB/9 and 5.9 K/9 in 63 2/3 IP.
- Last start: Win, 5 1/3 IP, 3 ER, 7 H (2 HR), 1 BB, 3 K in 4-3 home victory vs. Atlanta Braves Friday
- Career/2024 road splits: 1-2, 3.41 ERA, 37 IP, 14 ER, 34 H, 8 HR, 9 BB, 25 K, .238 opponents’ batting average (OBA), 1.16 WHIP in 7 starts
- Last 7 games: 1-3, 5.00 ERA, 36 IP, 20 ER, 43 H, 14 BB, 19 K, 1.58 WHIP
- Has never faced Twins
Festa (2-6, 4.80 ERA) makes his 13th career start and 14th appearance. He has a 1.28 WHIP, 3.3 BB/9 and 10.8 K/9 in 60 IP.
- Last start: No-decision, 5 IP, 1 ER, 4 H, 3 BB, 6 K in 4-2 road win in 12 innings vs. Boston Red Sox Friday
- 2024 home splits: 0-4, 6.00 ERA, 30 IP, 20 ER, 7 HR, 14 BB, 36 K, .241 OBA, 1.40 WHIP in 6 starts (7 appearances)
- Has never faced Marlins
Who’s going yard? Here’s a breakdown of today’s best home run props with our top picks. Include the BetMGM bonus code SBWIRE to score a $1,500 first-bet offer.
Marlins at Twins odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list of MLB odds. Lines last updated at 6:51 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Marlins +200 (bet $100 to win $200) | Twins -250 (bet $250 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Marlins +1.5 (+100) | Twins -1.5 (-120)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -120 | U: +100)
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Marlins at Twins picks and predictions
Prediction
Marlins 5, Twins 4
Moneyline
The MARLINS (+200) are a strong value on the road in this interleague series finale. Yes, Miami has 100 losses this season. However, the rookie Bellozo has pitched pretty well, and he has a slight advantage over the rookie Festa.
Festa has been crushed at home this season, going 0-4 with a 6.00 ERA in 6 starts and 1 relief appearance. The rookie pitching battle should go in favor of the visitors.
Run line/Against the spread
If you’re a little less adventurous, MARLINS +1.5 (+100) is still a worthwhile play. No one could fault you for wanting a little insurance on a 100-loss team, rather than playing a heavy underdog. Just don’t play both.
Over/Under
OVER 8.5 (-120) is the lean, but go with a half-unit play at most in this rookie pitcher battle.
The Over is 3-1 in the past 4 games for Minnesota, while going 6-2 in the past 8 interleague battles. The total has gone high at a 6-1-1 pace in the past 8 at home.
For the Marlins, the Over has a slight 4-3-1 advantage in the past 8 games. But, be careful, as the Under has hit in 4 straight starts for Bellozo.
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