The Miami Marlins (65-92) face the Milwaukee Brewers (84-73) Saturday in the 3rd game of a 4-game set at American Family Field. First pitch is set for 7:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Marlins vs. Brewers odds with MLB picks and predictions.
Season series: Brewers lead 3-2.
The Marlins lost a heartbreaker, 1-0, with their ace RHP Sandy Alcantara on the hill Friday. They put 3 runners on in the 9th inning but couldn’t get the equalizer as Brewers closer Devin Williams struck out the side. The Marlins took the first game of this series and are 5-5 over the last 10.
Milwaukee must treat every game like its last to get into the postseason. The Brewers are half game out of the final Wild Card spot the Philadelphia Phillies hold with 4 to go after Saturday. The San Diego Padres are in the 2nd Wild Card spot and are 1 1/2 games up on Philadelphia.
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Marlins at Brewers projected starters
RHP Edward Cabrera vs. LHP Aaron Ashby
Cabrera (6-4, 3.15 ERA) makes his 14th start. He has a 1.12 WHIP, 4.3 BB/9 and 9.2 K/9 in 68 2/3 IP.
- Went 2-2 with a 4.38 ERA, 1.30 WHIP and 8.0 K/9 in September
- Road warrior: 3-1, 1.62 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, 10.5 K/9 on road vs. 3-3, 4.58 ERA, 1.19 WHIP and 7.9 K/9 at home
Ashby (2-10, 4.50 ERA) makes his 19th start and 26th appearance. He has a 1.45 WHIP, 4.2 BB/9 and 10.6 K/9 in 100 IP.
- Made 2 appearances (1 start) in Sept: 3.2 IP, 3 H, 1 ER, 4 BB, 2 K
- Threw 40 and 41 pitches his last 2 appearances – could go 40-60 pitches or 2-4 innings
Marlins at Brewers odds
Provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:50 p.m. ET.
- Money line (ML): Marlins +155 (bet $100 to win $155) | Brewers -190 (bet $190 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Marlins +1.5 (-145) | Brewers -1.5 (+120)
- Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: +105 | U: -130)
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Marlins at Brewers picks and predictions
Prediction
Brewers 4, Marlins 3
Money line
Milwaukee has to find a way to win this one, and the Brewers will likely have to do it without their closer – who threw 27 pitches Friday night. The Phillies have a doubleheader against the lowly Washington Nationals Saturday, which means another chance to gain some ground on Milwaukee.
They’ll feel that pressure and react or fold. I’m leaning toward the former but not enough to put -190 on it. The Brewers’ bullpen is vulnerable, so if this goes extras, they’re in trouble anyway.
Take them to win in the first 9 with BREWERS FIRST 9 INNINGS (-155).
Run line/Against the spread
I don’t trust the Brewers to win by 2 or the Marlins to stay within 1. Let’s go with BREWERS OVER 1.5 TOTAL RUNS FIRST 5 INNINGS (-150) as Cabrera has allowed at least 2 ER in 4 straight starts.
Over/Under
Three games of the season series have been low-scoring, including the last 2, and 2 games have been laughers that went Over 10. Miami is 4-5-1 O/U over the last 10, and the Brewers are a woeful 2-8. Eight runs seems like a bit of a tall order for these offenses.
LEAN UNDER 7.5 (-130).
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