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The Miami Marlins (32-60) and Houston Astros (48-44) meet Thursday as they cap off a 3-game series. First pitch at Minute Maid Park will be at 8:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Marlins vs. Astros odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Houston leads 2-0
Miami dropped the 1st 2 games of this series and is just 2-7 across its last 9 outings. In 2 games in Houston, the Marlins have had just 4 at-bats with a runner in scoring position.
The Astros banged out 13 hits in a 9-1 Wednesday triumph over the Fish. Since June 29, Houston has averaged a robust 6.64 runs per game.
Marlins at Astros projected starters
RHP Roddery Munoz vs. TBD
Munoz (1-3, 5.48 ERA) is making his 9th start. The rookie has a 1.47 WHIP, 4.9 BB/9 and 8.1 K/9 in 44 1/3 IP.
- Last outing: No-decision, 4 IP, 2 ER, 4 H, 4 BB, 2 K in 3-2 home loss vs. Chicago White Sox Friday
- Has walked 10 batters over his last 14 2/3 IP
- Never faced Astros before
The Astros had not yet announced a starter, but RHP Jake Bloss (0-0, 4.91 ERA) is expected to make his 2nd start. The 23-year-old rookie allowed 2 earned runs on 6 hits and 1 walk with 2 K’s in his MLB debut, a 14-11 home victory vs. the Baltimore Orioles June 21.
- Was placed on IL June 22 with shoulder injury
- Rehab start with Triple-A Sugar Land: No-decision, 4 IP, 0 R, 1 H, 0 BB, 3 K in 9-7 home loss vs. Round Rock Saturday
- Threw 55 pitches in rehab start and would figure to be under tight restriction Thursday
Who’s going yard? Here’s a breakdown of today’s best home run props with our top picks. Include the BetMGM bonus code SBWIRE to score a $1,500 first-bet offer.
Marlins at Astros odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:20 p.m. ET.
- Moneyline: Marlins +155 (bet $100 to win $155) | Astros -190 (bet $190 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Marlins +1.5 (-120) | Astros -1.5 (+100)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)
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Marlins at Astros picks and predictions
Prediction
Astros 4, Marlins 3
Moneyline
HOUSTON (-190) has not lost at home since June 15 (8-0), and the Astros are 5-1 in their last half-dozen games against Miami.
The Marlins have averaged just 3.48 runs per game, and analytics would make the case they have been deserving of a lower average still.
The pitching in this one makes for a big question mark (consider a partial-unit play to account for added uncertainty), but the Houston bullpen has been logging solid metrics of late and the Astros have won 4 straight series finales.
BACK THE ASTROS (-190).
Run line/Against the spread
Miami has played in a slew if 1-run games. This contest has an Under lean, and the projected tightness works against the grain of an Astros-minus-1½ play. STEER CLEAR.
Over/Under
Look for the bullpens to loom large in this one, and the expected-vs.-actual assessments of both are solid.
BACK THE UNDER 8.5 (-105).
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