The Miami Marlins (27-30) try to inch closer to .500 against the Houston Astros (36-23) Sunday in the finale of a 3-game set at Minute Maid Park. First pitch is set for 2:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Marlins vs. Astros odds with MLB picks and predictions.
Season series: Miami leads 2-0 after 5-1, and 7-4 wins the last 2 days.
You probably didn’t see Miami poised for a sweep when they came to town. They hit 4 homers Friday and worked the counts to grind out a 5-1 win Saturday. They didn’t get length from their starters, though, as they used 5 and 4 relievers the last 2 games. That might catch up Sunday.
The Astros have swung and missed a lot in this series and their defense and pitching haven’t been great. They need to settle in because the pitcher they’re up against throws smoke.
Marlins at Astros projected starters
RHP Edward Cabrera vs. RHP Justin Verlander
Cabrera (2-0, 0.75 ERA) makes his 3rd start. He has a 0.75 WHIP, 4.5 BB/9 and 9.8 K/9 in 12 IP.
- The 24-year-old will have his first test as he beat the sub-.500 Colorado Rockies and Washington Nationals.
- Utilizes a changeup (94-mph avg.), fastball (97-mph avg.), curveball and slider. His heater is in the 65th percentile for spin rate.
- His .080 BABIP is sure to regress — and it may start Sunday against a good team.
Verlander (7-2, 2.13 ERA) makes his 12th start. He has a league-leading 0.84 WHIP, a 1.8 BB/9 and 9.2 K/9 in 71 2/3 IP.
- Hasn’t faced Miami since 2016. He’s coming off a gem, allowing 1 R, 6 H, 2 BB and with 12 K vs. the Seattle Mariners.
- After missing nearly 2 seasons from Tommy John surgery, he has returned in pre-surgery form at 39. One thing pitchers struggle with coming back is their control, but his 1.8 BB/9 is only a smidge higher than it was the last few years.
- Current Marlins hitters have hit .227 with a 28.9 K% in 45 plate appearances against him.
Marlins at Astros odds and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 10:19 a.m. ET.
- Money line (ML): Marlins +200 (bet $100 to win $200) | Astros -250 (bet $250 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Marlins +1.5 (-110) | Astros -1.5 (-110)
- Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -115 | U: -107)
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Marlins at Astros picks and predictions
Prediction
Astros 6, Marlins 2
Money line
The public loves Houston as 73% of the public and 78% of the money are on the Astros, according to Tipico’s data. And they’re probably right. Verlander will right the ship, and the Astros hit hard stuff well. There’s no chance we’re risking 2 1/2 times our return, though. So let’s follow the rest of the Astros and jump on Verlander’s back to take ASTROS FIRST 5 INNINGS (-145).
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Run line/Against the spread
I like the Astros’ side here, but they’re just 28-31 on the RL and 10-15 at home. But I need more than -110 on a team that has lost 3 in a row. So, PASS here and maybe try to snag a live bet if the Marlins grab a 1-0 lead early.
Over/Under
The Under hit Saturday, but that was just the 3rd time it cashed in the last 9 for the Astros. The Over is 4-0 in Cabrera’s last 4 starts on grass and Miami’s last 4 interleague games against a right-hander. There are some Under trends for Verlander, but this is a hittable number. LEAN OVER 7.5 (-115).
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