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The Miami Marlins (4-15) and Chicago Cubs (11-7) open a 4-game series at Wrigley Field Thursday. First pitch is scheduled for 7:40 p.m. ET (ESPN+). Let’s analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s lines around the Marlins vs. Cubs odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: First meeting; Marlins won 4-2 last season
The Cubs finished their 3-game series with the Arizona Diamondbacks Wednesday, winning 5-3 as +113 underdogs in the final matchup. Chicago has played 9 straight games on the road and is 5-1 straight up at home. It is 13-5 against the spread (ATS) this season.
The Marlins lost to the San Francisco Giants 3-1 Wednesday, failing to pull off the upset as +103 underdogs. They have lost 3 of their last 4 games and closed as underdogs in 12 straight. Miami is 6-13 ATS.
Marlins at Cubs projected starters
LHP AJ Puk vs. RHP Jameson Taillon
Puk (0-3, 5.91 ERA) makes his 4th start. He has a 2.44 WHIP, 11.8 BB/9 and 6.7 K/9 in 10 2/3 innings.
- Last start: Loss, 4 2/3 IP, 1 ER, 4 H, 5 BB, 2 K in 3-2 road loss to New York Yankees April 9
- Marlins have been outscored 20-6 in his 3 starts
- 2023 road splits: 3-2, 2.22 ERA (24 1/3 IP, 6 ER), 16 H, 4 BB, 27 K in 24 relief appearances
Taillon (8-10, 4.84 ERA in 2023) makes his 1st start of 2024. He had a 1.28 WHIP, 2.4 BB/9 and 8.2 K/9 in 154 1/3 innings in 2023.
- Cubs were 12-18 in his 30 appearances last season
- 2023 home splits: 4-6, 4.62 ERA (78 IP, 40 ER), 92 H, 19 BB, 78 K in 15 starts
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Marlins at Cubs odds
Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 10:25 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Marlins +132 (bet $100 to win $132) | Cubs -156 (bet $156 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Marlins +1.5 (-160) | Cubs -1.5 (+132)
- Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -118 | U: -104)
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Marlins at Cubs picks and predictions
Prediction
Cubs 6, Marlins 3
Moneyline
PASS.
The Cubs (-156) are fine to play on the moneyline here, but the preferred value for this one is on the spread.
Run line/Against the spread
BET CUBS -1.5 (+132).
The Cubs are the best team ATS in MLB, having covered in 13 of 18 games. The Marlins, on the other hand, are the worst team ATS in MLB at 6-13. They are 6-6 ATS as underdogs, while Chicago is 3-1 ATS as a favorite.
Puk has struggled immensely, and the Marlins have typically been blown out in his starts. While Taillon is making his 1st start, he is a veteran and should be able to perform well.
The Cubs are also 4-2 ATS at home. Considering those trends and given the plus-money value on the home favorites, back CUBS -1.5 (+132).
Over/Under
LEAN OVER 7.5 (-118).
The Cubs have gone Over in 9 of 18 games and tallied 16 runs in their last 2. They have scored at least 8 runs in 7 of 18 games as well.
The Marlins are 11-8 O/U on the season and have alternated going Over and Under in 7 straight games. Miami has gone Over in 2 of Puk’s 3 starts.
Back OVER 7.5 (-118).
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