The Miami Marlins (2-6) begin a four-game series with the NL East rival Atlanta Braves (4-5) Monday at Truist Park. First pitch is scheduled for 7:20 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Marlins vs. Braves odds with MLB picks and predictions.
RHP Sandy Alcantara (0-1) takes the mound for the Marlins in the series opener. Alcantara has looked sharp with two quality starts to begin the season.
He pitched 6 scoreless innings Opening Day against the Tampa Bay Rays, allowing just 2 hits and striking out 7, but he took a no-decision in Miami’s 1-0 loss. He took the loss Tuesday against the St. Louis Cardinals after giving up 2 earned runs and 3 total on 4 hits and 2 walks while striking out 10 in 6 innings pitched.
Last season, Alcantara was 3-2 with a 3.00 ERA and 1.19 WHIP (42 IP, 14 ER, 35 H, 39 K, 15 BB) in 7 starts
RHP Huascar Ynoa (0-0) makes his second start of the season for the Braves. He gave Atlanta 5 scoreless innings at the Washington Nationals Wednesday, giving up only 2 hits with 1 walk and 5 strikeouts, but got a no-decision in Atlanta’s 2-0 win.
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Marlins at Braves odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 11:20 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Marlins +115 (bet $100 to win $115) | Braves -140 (bet $140 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Marlins +1.5 (-165) | Braves -1.5 (+140)
- Over/Under: 8.5 (O: -105 | U: -115)
Prediction
Marlins 4, Braves 2
Money line (ML)
“LEAN” to the MARLINS (+115) for a half-unit.
Miami is considered to be the “sharp” side since, at the time of publishing, close to 90% of the money bet is on the Marlins but nearly half of the bets placed are on the Braves.
Although I’m a bit leary about taking a public road dog against the reigning division champions, the Braves just lost a controversial and intense game against the Philadelphia Phillies last night and have to host a sneaky good and rested Marlins team.
Miami’s game Sunday with the New York Mets was rained out and its relievers are much fresher. Atlanta used four relievers Sunday.
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
PASS because it’s out of my price range, but I wouldn’t rule out parlaying this with another similarly priced team for a plus-money payout.
Since the beginning of last season, the Marlins +1.5 (-165) have the second-best run line record in the majors as road underdogs at 26-8.
Over/Under (O/U)
TAKE UNDER 8.5 (-115) for 1 unit as the best bet in Marlins-Braves.
Alcantara is a pitcher I’m buying stock in and his numbers against the Braves are solid. He is 0-0 with a 2.41 ERA (18 2/3 IP, 5 ER), 13 K and 9 BB across 3 starts in his career against Atlanta.
The 25-year-old righty has seven straight quality starts and 10 out of 11 including games against the Rays, New York Yankees and Phillies.
Also, Alcantara’s last two outings against Atlanta (in 2019) were quality starts but he earned a no-decision in both.
I expect Alcantara to be sharp on the rubber tonight, Miami is 2-5-1 O/U and the lineup has put up 8 runs over the past five games.
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