The Houston Rockets (11-13) host the Miami Heat (10-14) Wednesday at the Toyota Center for a 7:30 p.m. ET tip-off. Below, we analyze the Heat-Rockets NBA odds and lines, with picks and predictions.
Miami has started to round a corner since All-Star wing Jimmy Butler returned from injury on Jan. 30. Over that span, the Heat are 4-2 overall, but only 2-4 ATS, behind the fourth-best defensive rating and the second-highest FTA/FGA rate.
The Rockets have lost three straight (0-3 ATS) since leading scorer and rebounder C Christian Wood was sidelined with an ankle sprain. Houston has the lowest net rating and rebounding percentage and the fourth-lowest effective field goal percentage with Wood out of action.
Heat at Rockets: Odds, spread and lines
Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:45 p.m. ET.
- Money line: Heat -145 (bet $145 to win $100) | Rockets +120 (bet $100 to win $120)
- Against the spread/ATS: Heat -2.5 (-110) | Rockets +2.5 (-110)
- Over/Under: 214.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
Heat at Rockets: Key injuries
Heat
- PG Goran Dragic (groin) out
- SG Avery Bradley (calf) out
Rockets
- PG John Wall (ankle) probable
- C Christian Wood (ankle) out
Special NBA Betting Promotion!
Place a $1 bet on either team’s money line, WIN an additional $100 (in free bets) if either team hits a 3-pointer during the game today. Promotion available in CO, IN, MI, NJ, TN, VA and WV. IA and PA residents, don’t miss BetMGM‘s risk-free, first-bet offer!
Place your legal, online sports bets at BetMGM! Terms and conditions apply. Bet now!
Heat at Rockets: Odds, lines, predictions and picks
Prediction
Heat 114, Rockets 104
Money line (ML)
PASS with a lean on Heat (-145). This is the fringe of my buy price for an NBA regular-season money line favorite and perhaps taking Miami to win outright is the better play. If the Heat somehow become a cheaper money line favorite before tip-off then Miami’s money line might be the play (pending a final injury report).
Play our new free daily Pick’em Challenge and win! Play now!
Against the spread (ATS)
My meta-strategy is to bet against the Rockets while they are without Wood. Houston was flying under the radar and had a winning record before he got injured. It has only been three games, but the Rockets are below-average defensively in all “four factors” (opponent’s eFG%, FTA rate, turnover percentage and offensive rebounding rate).
Houston has the second-best defensive rating in the Association, and Wood is its best defensive big. However, Houston’s perimeter defense is aided by Wood being an elite rebounder and shot-blocker, and him not being back there to protect the rim should cause the Rockets issues on defense.
Miami’s offense hasn’t found its groove yet this season judging by its 24th-ranked offensive rating and league-leading turnover rate. However, the Heat still has the eighth-highest eFG% and excels at getting to the foul line (sixth in free-throw rate) while Houston is 22nd in opponent’s FTA/FGA rate.
TAKE HEAT -2.5 (-110) for 1.25 units.
Over/Under (O/U)
PASS. A majority of the money wagered is on the Under (sharps) but a majority of the bets are on the Over (Joe Public), but my prediction is we see a good game from Miami’s offense. However, the Heat’s offense hasn’t come around yet, and the absence of Dragic is playing a role in that.
Want some action on this one? Place a bet at BetMGM now. For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.
Follow Geoff Clark on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.
Also see:
- 22 expiring contracts who could be available for trade (Hoops Hype)
- Celtics gearing up to make big trade? (Rockets Wire)
Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage.
[lawrence-newsletter]
[lawrence-auto-related count=3 category=1368]