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The TCU Horned Frogs (21-12) and Utah State Aggies (27-6) battle in a 1st-round Midwest Region game Friday in Indianapolis. Tip-off at Gainbridge Fieldhouse is slated for a 9:55 p.m. ET (CBS). Below, we analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the TCU vs. Utah State odds, and make our expert college basketball picks, predictions and best bets.
Ninth-seeded Texas Christian has been off since March 14 when the Horned Frogs fell 60-45 to current-No. 2 Houston in the Big 12 Tournament as an 11 1/2-point underdog. TCU has won just twice since Feb. 26 and scored just 15 points in the 1st half of the loss to Houston.
No. 8 seed Utah State, ranked No. 19 in the USA TODAY Sports Coaches Poll, won the regular-season title in the Mountain West Conference. The Aggies lost to San Diego State 86-70 as a 5-point underdog in the MWC Tournament last Friday. USU is just 1-4-1 against the spread (ATS) since Feb. 27.
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TCU vs. Utah State odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Thursday at 4:01 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline: TCU -185 (bet $185 to win $100) | Utah State +150 (bet $100 to win $150)
- Against the spread (ATS): TCU -3.5 (-120) | Utah State +3.5 (+100)
- Over/Under (O/U): 150.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)
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TCU vs. Utah State picks and predictions
Prediction
TCU 76, Utah State 73
Moneyline
The lean with the points is on the underdog Aggies. Utah State is 1-19 straight up in its last 20 NCAA Tournament games, so let’s focus on USU plus the points. PASS.
Against the spread
The Aggies get a lot of near-proximity looks and are averaging 79.8 points per game. TCU is just 4-8 ATS against foes averaging 77-plus PPG.
Over the last 3 years, Utah State has gone 15-7 in neutral-site games.
The Frogs have been a strong team most of the year on the offensive glass, but have faltered in that facet of the game of late. BartTorvik pegs USU’s defensive rebounding rate as a solid 39th in the nation. TCU also likes to leverage turnovers, and the Aggies typically have solid handles on the ball.
Expect the Aggies to force the issue inside and get to the foul line with good frequency. This line has drifted toward TCU and is ripe for some buy-back.
FanDuel Sportsbook is offering a better cushion for USU bettors. TAKE UTAH STATE +4.5 (-120).
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Over/Under
These teams play fast, but the total is up there reflecting perhaps a bit too much regular-season ball.
The matchup takes the edge off a couple point-spiral factors. Both teams are loaded with veteran experience, and shading this one in the 140s is the recommendation.
Consider a partial-unit play on the UNDER 150.5 (-105).
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