We’re going to pare down the NCAA Tournament field from 16 teams to 12 Thursday and there are some intriguing games on the schedule for Madison Square Garden in New York and T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas.
After looking at the Tipico Sportsbook’s NCAA Tournament odds and lines, here is Thursday’s can’t-miss, Sweet 16 parlay among our expert college basketball picks and predictions.
Unlike Friday’s slate of games, the 4 contests scheduled for Thursday are expected to be close as teams are favored by 3.5 or fewer points in 3 of the 4 games. The only game the books expect to be lopsided is the 4th-seeded Tennessee Volunteers against the 9th-seeded FAU Owls at Madison Square Garden.
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NCAA Tournament Sweet 16 parlay
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Wednesday at 9:37 a.m. ET. All game times ET; ML = moneyline.
Leg 1: KANSAS STATE ML (+115) vs. Michigan State – 6:30 p.m. (TBS)
Michigan State ended the regular season with just 7 wins in the final 14 games dating back to Jan. 13, and Sparty was just 4-7 ATS in the final 11 outings. To make matters worse, MSU lost by 10 points to a bad Ohio State team in the first game of the Big Ten Conference Tournament.
The outlook heading into the NCAA Tournament was bleak, but this is a Tom Izzo-coached team, and he does what he does best — motivate. After wins and covers against USC and Marquette in the first 2 games of the Big Dance, the books have Sparty favored.
Take advantage. Kansas State has been the much more consistent team during the tournament and in the regular season. K-State has averaged 76.0 points per game (PPG) on offense while allowing 67.0 PPG in 2 wins and covers in the NCAA Tournament.
The Wildcats have won 6 of the past 8 games overall and have covered 6 of the past 7. Head coach Jerome Tang has really made a name for himself in this tournament, and he’ll help the purple crush the veteran Izzo and his upstart Spartans.
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Leg 2: UConn vs. Arkansas UNDER 139.5 (-110) – 7:15 p.m. (CBS)
The Huskies kick off the first of 2 games at T-Mobile Arena. With defending champs Baylor, Duke, Kansas and Virginia all ousted from the NCAA Tournament, and North Carolina and Villanova not in the field, UConn is the most recent national champion (2014) still alive.
Arkansas has picked up wins and covers against Illinois and Kansas, so this certainly won’t be easy for UConn, and this game really and truly could go either way.
The Huskies have wins and covers against Iona and Saint Mary’s so far, too. The one thing these teams have in common is defense — and a lot of it.
UConn has cashed the Under in 3 of 4 postseason games, and 5 of the past 6 games overall. The Huskies have allowed 70 or fewer points in 6 straight games since Feb. 11 and in 9 of their last 10 games. The Under is also 4-1 in the past 5 neutral-site games for the Huskies.
Arkansas has hit the Under in 3 in a row, allowing an average of just 67.0 PPG in the past 3 postseason games. That’s a common theme for the Hogs, too, as the Under has cashed in 5 consecutive NCAA Tournament games for Arkansas.
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Leg 3: TENNESSEE -5.5 (-112) vs. Florida Atlantic – 9 p.m. (TBS)
The Volunteers are back in the Sweet 16 for the first time since 2019. This bet comes with risk though, as Tennessee is just 1-7 straight-up in 8 previous trips to the Sweet 16 round.
The good news for the Vols is that FAU might be the perfect opponent to break that ugly cycle, as the Owls are playing in their 1st-ever Sweet 16 game and its 1st-ever game played at MSG, too.
FAU has 33 wins in 36 tries this season, but it is just 1-1 straight up and ATS in 2 games against SEC teams, and it lost its only previous NCAA Tournament game against an SEC foe (Alabama in 2002).
The Owls will have to contend with the most physical team they have seen to date, and it’s not even close. The Vols rank in the top 3 in points allowed (57.8, 3rd), defensive field-goal percentage (37.2%, 3rd) and defensive 3-pointer percentage (26.4%, 1st).
The total is set at 130.5, and the Volunteers are 8-2 ATS in the past 10 games with a total of 131 or fewer points. Look for Tennessee to roll into the Elite 8, ending a dream season for FAU.
Parlay payout: Bet $10 to profit $67.69 (ticket pays $77.69).
Try out the USA TODAY Parlay Calculator.
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