March Madness: NC State vs. Duke odds, picks and predictions

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The NC State Wolfpack (25-14) and Duke Blue Devils (27-8) meet Sunday in Elite 8 action in the NCAA Tournament. Tip-off from the American Airlines Center is slated for 5:05 p.m. ET (CBS). Below, we analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Duke vs. NC State odds, and make our expert college basketball picks, predictions and best bets.

The 4th-seeded Blue Devils surprised the top seed in the South Region, the 1st-seeded Houston Cougars. Duke won a low-scoring defensive battle 54-51 as the Under (134) was never in question. Now, Duke is the top remaining seed in the South Region.

Duke has won and covered 3 straight games since losing in the ACC Tournament to NC State on March 14. The Wolfpack won that tourney game 74-69 outright as an 11-point underdog as the Under (146) connected. The Blue Devils blasted the Wolfpack 79-64 in the previous meeting on March 4 in Raleigh, covering as a 6-point favorite as the Under (150.5) cashed.

NC State has had an amazing postseason ride, winning 5 games in 5 days at the ACC Tournament to win the title, while winning 8 consecutive outings in the ACC tourney and NCAA Tournament. The Wolfpack has covered 6 of the past 7 games, including each of the previous 6 outings as an underdog.

Duke was No. 14 and NC State was unranked in the final USA TODAY Sports Coaches Poll of the regular season.

NC State vs. Duke odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook’s; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 7:01 a.m. ET.

Moneyline (ML): NC State +300 (bet $100 to win $300) | Duke -250 (bet $250 to win $100)
Against the spread: NC State +7.5 (-120) | Duke -7.5 (+100)
Over/Under (O/U): 143.5 (O: -105 | U: -115)

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NC State vs. Duke and predictions

Prediction

Duke 72, NC State 67

Moneyline

Duke (-250) will cost you 2 1/2 times your potential return, and that’s quite expensive, especially against a conference rival which knows it well. These teams will be playing for the 3rd time since March 4.

NC State (+300) has been amazing story, but all good things come to an end. Sometimes we get attached to a Cinderella story, but you can’t bet what you might want to happen, you have to use your head. Duke is the better team, and it will show Sunday.

AVOID, and look to the spread instead.

Against the spread

NC STATE +7.5 (-120) is playing with a lot of confidence. While Duke -7.5 (+100) should be able to get the job done, these teams have split the 2 meetings since March 4, with the Wolfpack winning outright in Washington D.C. as an 11-point underdog on a neutral floor.

The Wolfpack has won and covered each of the past 6 games as an underdog. NC State is also 7-2 ATS in the past 9 games on a neutral floor, too. The Pack is likely to run out of gas, but it should have enough left in the tank to keep it within 4 buckets.

Duke used a suffocating defense to beat Houston, the No. 2 team in the nation, at its own game. Look for the Blue Devils to ride a hot defense to splash cold water on the Pack.

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Over/Under

UNDER 143.5 (-115) is worth a look in this Elite 8 matchup, and ACC rivalry game.

NC State has cashed the Under in 2 of the 3 NCAA tournament games, while allowing 69 or fewer points in 5 of the past 7 postseason outings. The Under has cashed in both meetings with Duke since March 4, too.

For Duke, it has leaned heavily upon its defense to get the job done in the NCAA Tournament, allowing an average of just 51.0 PPG in 3 outings, with the Under going 4-0 in the postseason, and 7-1 in the past 8 games. The Under is 14-3 in the past 17 outings dating back to Jan. 27, too.

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