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Week 2 of March Madness is upon us. The madness? That’s mostly the upsets that happen in just about every bracket region every year. After looking at Tipico Sportsbook’s NCAA Tournament odds and lines, here is Friday’s best Sweet 16 upset pick among our expert college basketball picks and predictions.
Friday’s action includes games in the Midwest Region semifinals i Kansas City and the South Region semis i Louisville. The combatants come from chalky and not-so-chalky parts of the brackets. The best upset opportunity lies with a tweener seed in the South.
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Friday’s best Sweet 16 upset pick
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Thursday at 11:38 p.m. ET.
SAN DIEGO STATE +7.5 (-110) vs. Alabama – 6:30 p.m. ET.
The 5th-seeded Aztecs — the No. 18 team in the nation — are the champions of the Mountain West Conference. San Diego State has defeated 12-seed Charleston and 13-seed Furman this far in this tournament. It is 12-1 since the beginning of February.
Top-seeded and 2nd-ranked-nationally Alabama presents a different challenge for SDSU. The Aztecs have played 3 other KenPom top-20 teams this season. They registered losses by 17 points to Arizona (Nov. 22), 4 to Arkansas (Nov. 23) and 7 to Saint Mary’s (Dec. 10).
But this is a live underdog. San Diego State is likely due some shooting regression on offense, but its defense is tremendous. Over their last 13 games, the Aztecs have held opponents to 57.5 points per game on a 37.7% mark from the floor.
Alabama is the much younger team in this matchup. The Crimson Tide can be a bit inconsistent, and they often rely a great deal on a significant home-court edge.
Both of these teams defend the perimeter at elite levels. But that should affect Alabama’s offense — one that relies on triples to a great degree — much more than SDSU’s.
Then there is the pace of this matchup, with the Tide playing the rabbit and the Aztecs playing the turtle. Of its last 8 against-the-spread losses, 6 games were against slow-tempo foes.
This game going into the final minute would not be a surprise, and some bettors may want to pair the ATS play with some moneyline (SAN DIEGO STATE +260) action.
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