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The No. 9 seed Baylor Bears (19-14) and the No. 8 seed Mississippi State Bulldogs (21-12) meet Friday at Lenovo Center in Raleigh for an NCAA Tournament East Region first-round game. Tip-off is scheduled for 12:15 p.m. ET (CBS). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Baylor vs. Mississippi State odds, and make our expert college basketball picks and predictions.
The Bears were dispatched 76-74 by Texas Tech in the Big 12 quarterfinals March 13 despite F Norchad Omier going off for 29 points, 15 rebounds and 2 blocked shots on 12-of-18 shooting.
Baylor also covered as a 6.5-point underdog, going 2-0 against the spread (ATS) in the Big 12 tourney after finishing the regular season 5-7 straight up (SU) in the final 12 outings, while going 0-6-2 ATS in the last 8 games. The Under is 5-1 in the past 6 contests for Baylor.
On a neutral floor, Baylor is 3-2 SU/ATS with the Under holding a 3-2 edge in 5 tries this season. Baylor went 1-1 SU/ATS against the SEC this season, cashing the Under in both outings.
Mississippi State was excused from the SEC Tournament in the second round by Missouri, falling 85-73 March 13 despite 24 points from G Josh Hubbard. The Bulldogs are just 2-5 SU in the past 7 games, going 3-4 ATS. The Over is 6-1 across the past 7 outings.
On a neutral floor, the Bulldogs are 5-2 SU in 7 games this season, but just 3-4 ATS. The Under has a slight 4-3 edge in those games.
Mississippi State faced just one Big 12 team in 2024-25, beating Utah 78-73 Nov. 17 in a neutral floor outing in Southaven, Mississippi, home of the Memphis Hustle of the G League. It failed to cover as a 7.5-point favorite, though, as the Over (148) cashed.
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Baylor vs. Mississippi State odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Thursday at 5:25 p.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Baylor -102 (bet $102 to win $100) | Mississippi State -118 (bet $118 to win $100)
- Against the spread: Baylor +1.5 (-115) | Mississippi State -1.5 (-105)
- Over/Under (O/U): 144.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
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Baylor vs. Mississippi State picks and predictions
Prediction
Baylor 73, Mississippi State 69
Moneyline
BAYLOR (-102) is worth a look in this first-round game, which is essentially a toss-up.
The Bears were a little more impressive down the stretch, recording wins over TCU on the road, as well as against bubble team West Virginia. It played Texas Tech tough in the Big 12 title game in a loss by just a single possession, too.
Mississippi State (-118) showed it can be dangerous on any given night, routing a good Texas A&M team 70-54 as recently as Feb. 18, but it also showed it can be extremely erratic, following that up with a 111-73 blowout loss at Alabama Feb. 25.
Against the spread
Baylor +1.5 (-115) makes no sense. There is never a reason to take the points and pay more. Whenever a slight underdog is catching such a little spread, just back it SU.
PASS.
Over/Under
UNDER 144.5 (-110) is the lean, but tread lightly.
The Under dominated for Baylor down the stretch, going 5-1 in the past 6 outings. Baylor allowed 65 or fewer points in the final 3 regular-season games and in 4 of the past 5 outings.
However, Mississippi State was a sieve defensively, allowing 85 or more points in 5 of the past 7 games, with the Over going 6-1. Running up and down the court isn’t really Baylor’s game, though, so we should expect a lower-scoring contest.
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