The 49ers didn’t trade for All-Pro safety Jamal Adams. Instead, their division rival the Seattle Seahawks did in exchange for two first-round picks and a third-round choice. While adding an All-Pro safety makes sense for just about any team, the 49ers weren’t in a place to make the all-in type of swing Seattle made.
It’s easy to set aside the long-term implications of a blockbuster trade for one of the NFL’s best safeties. Especially for a team like San Francisco that was so close to winning a Super Bowl last season. Adding Adams surely would’ve put them on the inside track for another trip to the NFL’s biggest stage, and might’ve been good enough to get them over the hump.
There are some things that have to be considered though from the 49ers’ perspective:
1. The salary cap is going to dip
It’s unknown exactly how much revenue the NFL will lose this season with fans either not attending games at all or in a limited capacity, but teams could be looking at a $175 million salary cap number — roughly $40 million below the projection from Over the Cap. San Francisco would have $4 million in cap space in 2021 if the number dips that far. Even if it comes up short of $40 million, it looks like they’ll have less than their projected $44 million to work with next offseason.
While they can restructure deals and make some cuts to alleviate some of that cap stress, it’s hard to envision the club working with exceptionally deep pockets next year.
2. Adams will want a huge contract
The rift between Adams and the Jets began in part because New York wouldn’t extend him after the third year of his rookie contract. Adams will require top-of-market money, and will likely want to reset the market. Washington’s Landon Collins has a six-year, $84 million deal with $44.5 million guaranteed. His total value and guarantees are the most among NFL safeties. Chicago’s Eddie Jackson is the highest paid by average annual value at $14.6 million.
It stands to reason that Adams will earn something like $15 million per season with more than $45 million guaranteed. That’s a hefty contract for a strong safety — a position the 49ers haven’t placed exceptionally high value on during John Lynch and Kyle Shanahan’s tenure. He does have two years left on his rookie contract at a reasonable price, but it’s hard to believe he’ll play two more seasons at a relative discount.
3. George Kittle still needs a contract
Part of the reason the 49ers and Kittle haven’t come to an agreement on a deal yet may have to do with the financial uncertainty going into next season. A potential $40 million shortfall makes it much trickier to sign Kittle to a deal that’s going to overhaul the tight end market. He figures to earn something well north of the $10.6 million Browns tight end Austin Hooper is raking in as the NFL’s highest-paid tight end. The team has made it clear Kittle is their priority, and unless something changes, adding his extension is going to be difficult enough. Tossing an eventual big deal for Adams into the mix would’ve appeared to put the safety ahead of Kittle on the club’s priority list.
4. Look at all the other free agents
Here are some of the 49ers players set to hit free agency going into an offseason where the team could be working with minimal cap space:
Kittle
Kyle Juszczyk
Trent Williams
Richard Sherman
K’Waun Williams
Ahkello Witherspoon
Emmanuel Moseley
Jaquiski Tartt
Kendrick Bourne
Solomon Thomas
Tevin Coleman
Ronald Blair
DJ Jones
Trent Taylor
Marcell Harris
Nick Mullens
CJ Beathard
They won’t be to keep all of them, but adding Adams means retaining any of the high-end players becomes next to impossible.
5. Restocking through the draft
The 49ers went into this year’s draft with no picks in Rounds 2, 3 or 4. They wound up moving around via trade and using five selections. With so many key players set to hit free agency, San Francisco can’t afford another year where they only use five picks, including three in the final three rounds. They need their Day 1 and 2 picks, and they already sent their 2021 third-round choice to Washington in the trade for Trent Williams.
Beating Seattle’s offer of a 2021 first-rounder, 2021 third-rounder and 2022 first-rounder would’ve meant unloading a ton of premium draft capital. That means San Francisco would’ve been in a spot where they had Adams, but a ton of holes to fill, minimal cap space and no premium picks. Lynch and the front office are creative, but the path to retooling a Super Bowl contender in those circumstances would’ve been close to impossible.
6. Positional value
The pass rush is the bread and butter of the 49ers’ defense. Both Lynch and Shanahan have made that abundantly clear. Their philosophy says their scheme thrives on sound play in the secondary that works because of a dominant pass rush. Therefore, their high-dollar investments aren’t going to come on the back end. They didn’t even want to pay defensive tackle DeForest Buckner because his position didn’t warrant the expenditure.
Given the value of the pass rush vs. the value of the secondary, it’s easy to see why the 49ers didn’t move the draft picks to acquire a safety that would eventually be one of their two highest-paid defenders. We saw last season how effective the Jimmie Ward-Jaquiski Tartt safety tandem is behind a strong pass rush. The improvement from Tartt to Adams doesn’t outweigh the uptick in price.