For the first time since 2000, the Tigers enter the season sitting outside of both the preseason USA TODAY Sports Coaches Poll and AP Top 25. It’s clear the human minds are not high on LSU, and it seems that the analytics agree.
In the final preseason projections from ESPN’s Bill Connelly’s SP+ analytics system, the Tigers are lower than they would like. However, they are just three spots outside of the top 25 at No. 28. SP+ likes LSU’s defense (No. 22) more than its offense (No. 34), though both rank squarely in the top quartile of the FBS, which would be a welcome change from the last two seasons.
However, when it comes to wins and losses, the numbers aren’t as friendly. SP+ project just 6.5 overall wins (3.1 in conference play) during coach Brian Kelly’s first season at the helm. While a seven-win season is possible with the gauntlet of an SEC West schedule, a one-game improvement from last season’s 6-7 finish could result in a short honeymoon period for Kelly.
There’s a decent chance LSU’s resume is being weighed down by returning production, which is one of SP+’s primary considerations for preseason projections. The Tigers rank 70th in the FBS in returning production, bringing back 65% of its defensive production and just 61% of its offensive production.
But in fairness, a lot of that production is being replaced with a handful of talented transfers, all of whom bring experience to the table. You would think that a six-win team losing 10 players to the draft and a number more to the transfer portal would be in dire straits, but the Tigers actually have a fairly veteran roster, all things considered.
It’s clear that both the polls and the computers are hedging LSU this fall, and considering it’s Year 1 for an SEC West team with an uncertain quarterback situation, that’s understandable. Still, it’s hard to imagine the Tigers aren’t able to outperform these projections in Kelly’s first campaign.
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