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The Los Angeles Dodgers (63-45) and San Diego Padres (58-51) wrap up a 2-game set at Petco Park Wednesday. First pitch is scheduled for 8:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Dodgers vs. Padres odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Padres lead 6-3
The Padres won 6-5 in 10 innings as +118 underdogs in the opener Tuesday as the Over (7) cashed. PH Donovan Solano hit a walk-off single in the 10th inning for San Diego, which came all the way back from an early 5-0 deficit.
The NL West-leading Dodgers had a 93% win probability, according to ESPN Analytics, heading into the top of the 9th inning with a 5-3 lead. L.A. has lost 4 of its last 6 after going on a 5-game win streak July 19-23 out of the All-Star break.
Dodgers at Padres projected starters
LHP Clayton Kershaw vs. RHP Dylan Cease
Kershaw (0-0, 4.50 ERA) makes his 2nd start. He allowed 2 ER on 6 hits and 2 walks with 6 K’s in 4 IP in his season debut, a 6-4 home victory over the San Francisco Giants Thursday.
- Was activated off 60-day IL Thursday after having offseason shoulder surgery
- 2023 stats: 13-5, 2.46 ERA (131 2/3 IP, 36 ER), 1.06 WHIP, 9.4 K/9 in 24 starts
- Career vs. Padres (regular season): 23-10, 2.12 ERA (296 2/3 IP, 70 ER), 0.99 WHIP, 9.6 K/9 in 46 starts, including 0-1 with 7.71 ERA (4 2/3 IP, 4 ER) in 1 start last year
Cease (10-8, 3.50 ERA) makes his 23rd start. He has a 0.99 WHIP, 2.7 BB/9 and 11.5 K/9 in 131 IP.
- Last start: Win, 9 IP, 0 ER, 0 H, 3 BB, 9 K in 2nd no-hitter in Padres history, a 3-0 victory at Washington Nationals Thursday
- 2024 home stats: 4-5, 3.32 ERA (59 2/3 IP, 22 ER), 1.02 WHIP, 12.2 K/9 in 10 starts
- Career vs. Dodgers: 0-1, 1.80 ERA (10 IP, 2 ER), 1.60 WHIP, 16.2 K/9 in 2 starts, including 0-0 with 3.38 ERA (5 1/3 IP, 2 ER) in 1 start last season
Who’s going yard? Here’s a breakdown of today’s best home run props with our top picks. Include the BetMGM bonus code SBWIRE to score a $1,500 first-bet offer.
Dodgers at Padres odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 10:44 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Dodgers +115 (bet $100 to win $115) | Padres -135 (bet $135 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Dodgers +1.5 (-200) | Padres -1.5 (+165)
- Over/Under (O/U): 7 (O: -110 | U: -110)
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Dodgers at Padres picks and predictions
Prediction
Dodgers 5, Padres 4
Moneyline
The DODGERS (+115) don’t seem like an attractive team to back right now, especially after Kershaw’s mediocre season debut against the Giants Thursday. However, Cease may be due for a huge letdown after throwing a no-hitter at Washington in his last start.
L.A. is tied with the New York Yankees for 1st in MLB with a .334 on-base percentage, much better than the last 3 teams Cease has faced in the Nationals (16th), Cleveland Guardians (15th) and Atlanta Braves (24th).
While Cease’s stretch of 3 straight games allowing 0 ER has been impressive, he’ll be facing a much more dangerous batting order in the Dodgers, who will be extra focused after blowing a 5-run lead in the opener.
BET DODGERS (+115).
Run line/Against the spread
L.A. +1.5 (-200) should hit, but it’s hard to stay profitable in MLB betting into lines with this much vig.
PASS. Bet the ML and/or total instead.
Over/Under
I’m going against the market’s love for Cease in this spot. Seven is a key number in MLB totals, and I can’t bet the Under at this number when Cease is in a potential letdown spot after throwing a no-hitter.
Kershaw also allowed 2 ER in 4 IP in his season debut, and the jury’s still out on whether the 36-year-old can return to form after having offseason shoulder surgery.
BET OVER 7 (-110).
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