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The Los Angeles Dodgers (55-38) take on the Philadelphia Phillies (60-32) Thursday in the finale of a 3-game set at Citizens Bank Park at 6:05 p.m. ET (MLB Network). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Dodgers vs. Phillies odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Phillies lead 2-0
The Dodgers dropped their 3rd straight game Wednesday with a 4-3 loss in Philadelphia. They simply can’t stack up on the mound right now with all of their injuries. DH Shohei Ohtani went 2-for-4 with an RBI, but it wasn’t enough.
The Phillies, despite RHP Zack Wheeler exiting with back stiffness Tuesday, are getting healthier. DH Kyle Schwarber made his presence felt with a leadoff homer in his 2nd game back from the IL. The Phils have the best record in baseball.
Dodgers at Phillies projected starters
RHP Landon Knack vs. RHP Aaron Nola
Knack (1-2, 2.86 ERA) makes his 8th start. He has a 0.98 WHIP, 2.3 BB/9 and 8.0 K/9 through 34 2/3 innings.
- Last start: Loss, 4 1/3 IP, 4 ER, 4 H, 1 BB, 6 K in 9-3 home defeat July 4 against Arizona Diamondbacks
- Never faced Phillies before
- Home/road splits: Road: 1-0, 2.30 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, 8.1 K/9 in 3 GS; Home: 0-2, 3.32 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, 8.1 K/9 in 4 GS
Nola (10-4, 3.48 ERA) makes his 19th start. He has a 1.03 WHIP, 2.0 BB/9 and 8.5 K/9 through 113 2/3 innings.
- Last start: Win, 6 IP, 3 ER, 5 H, 0 BB, 8 K in 8-6 victory Friday at Atlanta Braves
- Leads league with 16 homers allowed
- Last 5 starts vs. Dodgers: 0-1, 4.97 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 36 K in 29 IP
Who’s going yard? Here’s a breakdown of today’s best home run props with our top picks. Include the BetMGM bonus code SBWIRE to score a $1,500 first-bet offer.
Dodgers at Phillies odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:38 p.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Dodgers +125 (bet $100 to win $125) | Phillies -155 (bet $155 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Dodgers +1.5 (-155) | Phillies -1.5 (+125)
- Over/Under (O/U): 9 (O: -120 | U: +100)
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Dodgers at Phillies picks and predictions
Prediction
Dodgers 6, Phillies 4
Moneyline
It’s really hard to sweep a team. It’s even harder when that team is the Dodgers. Nola has allowed 3+ ER in 4 of 5 starts and in his last 3 starts against the Dodgers. Conversely, Knack had been solid until his last start. Throw that start out, and he has a 2.07 ERA. I like the DODGERS (+125).
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Run line/Against the spread
There’s no use taking the RL when we’re getting value on the ML.
I will target AARON NOLA UNDER 1.5 WALKS (-150). He has 1 BB in his last 4 starts.
Over/Under
The wind is blowing out at 8 mph to right-center on an 86-degree day. The Dodgers are 8-2 O/U in their last 10, and the Phils are 6-4.
This feels like an OVER 9 (-120) kind of day.
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