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The Los Angeles Dodgers (84-54) and Miami Marlins (72-67) meet Thursday to close out a 3-game series. First pitch at loanDepot park is slated for 6:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Dodgers vs. Marlins odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Miami leads 3-2
Los Angeles has dropped the first 2 games of this series, including an 11-4 drubbing on Wednesday, and is just 1-5 over its last 5 games. The Dodgers have filed a higher-than-normal 27.8% strikeout rate over those 6 games — L.A.’s season whiff rate is 22.7%.
The Marlins have won 6 in a row on the heels of a 3-10 stretch in the back half of August. Miami owns a .949 OPS over its last half-dozen games.
Dodgers at Marlins projected starters
RHP Ryan Pepiot vs. LHP Braxton Garrett
Pepiot (1-0, 1.29 ERA) is tabbed for his 2nd start and 4th appearance. He has notched a 0.71 WHIP, 1.3 BB/9 and 9.0 K/9 through 14 IP.
- Last start: Win, 5 IP, 0 ER, 2 H, 1 BB, 3 K in 7-0 home win vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Aug. 30
- Pitching his 2nd game on the road this season; career on the road: 0-0, 2.81 road ERA over 16 IP across 3 starts and 1 relief appearance
- 2023 vs. Marlins: No-decision, 5 IP, 1 ER, 3 H, 1 BB, 5 K as a reliever in 3-1 home win on Aug. 19.
Garrett (8-5, 3.86 ERA) is lined up for his 27th start and 28th appearance. He’s posted a 1.15 WHIP, 1.4 BB/9 and 8.7 K/9 through 140 IP.
- Last start: Win, 6 IP, 1 ER, 3 H, 1 BB, 1 K in 6-1 win at Washington Nationals last Thursday
- 2023 home stats: 3-3, 4.94 ERA in 71 IP across 14 games
- Only career start vs. Dodgers: Loss, 6 IP, 3 ER, 5 H, 0 BB, 6 K in 3-1 road loss on Aug. 19
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Dodgers at Marlins odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 2:21 p.m. ET.
- Moneyline: Dodgers -125 (bet $125 to win $100) | Marlins +105 (bet $100 to win $105)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Dodgers -1.5 (+135) | Marlins +1.5 (-160)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -105 | U: -115)
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Dodgers at Marlins picks and predictions
Prediction
Dodgers 5, Marlins 4
Moneyline
There are some questions plaguing both sides of this wager: Pepiot starting, Garrett hurling at home, Los Angeles is in a mini-slump and a mercurial Marlins bunch teetering on being about a .500 team.
PASS.
Run line/Against the spread
Mixed signals here. Pepiot is too much of a question mark and the return on L.A. is not enough.
AVOID.
Over/Under
Pitchers on both sides can be dinged, and the Los Angeles offense figures to come around.
The Over has hit in the first 2 games of this series and in 7 of the Dodgers’ last 10.
BACK THE OVER 8.5 (-105).
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