Leigh Steinberg: Why 2020 NFL Draft isn’t any riskier than usual

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[Editor’s note: Sports agent Leigh Steinberg is writing a series of guest columns for Touchdown Wire examining pro football topics from his perspective of expertise after more than four decades in and around the game.]

There has been much collective agonizing and hang wringing about whether the 2020 NFL Draft results will be productive given the cessation of in-person scouting midway through the process.

Pro scouting days on college campuses, individual visits with players, combine physical rechecks and visits by players to franchises all were eliminated by Commissioner Roger Goodell as he responded to the coronavirus crisis by issuing a stay-at-home order for team personnel. This will be my 46th NFL draft representing players, and I predict that the passage of five years will show the players drafted this year and their contributions to teams will be more dynamic than players taken in the past.

When I began representing NFL players in 1975 with QB Steve Bartkowski, who was picked No. 1 overall by the Atlanta Falcons, the draft was held in January. Teams relied on their scouts’ reports, game film and the performance of players in all-star games, and then they went ahead and drafted. There was no scouting combine until 1982 when the first one was held in Tampa, Florida, in a greatly abbreviated form. There were no pro scouting days held on college campuses. There were no player visits to team facilities.

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A comparison of the career success of first-round picks in 1975 to first-round picks in 2005 draft shows that the 1975 pre-draft evaluations produced more successful careers – even though the evaluation process was extended in later years.

Why was this?

Best predictor of future success is past success

Studying how players actually perform using game film is the most reliable way to gauge the likelihood that a player will have a successful pro career. This is the best way to see how a player performs in game conditions. For a franchise quarterback, the real test is how he performs under adversity. When the quarterback has thrown a couple interceptions — the crowd is starting to boo, and the game is getting out of hand — what does that player do? Can he compartmentalize, adopt a quiet mind, shake off past miscues and elevate his level of play to lift a team to victory. When Patrick Mahomes did this in the playoffs and Super Bowl this year, it was a reflection of what could be seen from his college game film – not his pro day performance.

Overreliance on measurables, testing

The scouting combine tests players in a 40-yard dash, vertical leap, broad jump, bench press and lateral three-cone drill. When a wide receiver or defensive back runs a 4.3 40, he often vaults into the first round. What is not measured is how well the receiver runs routes and catches the ball. The 40 time also does not measure work ethic or performance in the clutch. The most famous workout warrior was Philadelphia Eagles defensive end Mike Mamula, who dominated the combine and was the No. 7 overall pick in 1995. He had a notably abbreviated career.

In 2003, we represented Lance Briggs, a linebacker from the University of Arizona. He was a sensational college player, but he didn’t post dynamic numbers at the combine and was drafted in the third round. He was an immediate success with the Chicago Bears and would be named to seven Pro Bowls during his career. He had 103 solo tackles during his second year with the Bears and 113 in his fourth.

In 2017, UTEP running back Aaron Jones ran a 4.56 in the 40 at the combine and was drafted by Green Bay in the fifth round. In his third year, he gained 1,000 yards and tied for the league lead in touchdowns. UCLA linebacker Jayon Brown followed the same pattern and also was drafted in the fifth round in 2017. He made an immediate impact with the Titans and had 108 combined tackles last year. By focusing on combine standouts, teams overlooked the real talent that can only be found on the game tape by players such as Alvin Kamara (third round, 2017), Hunter Renfrow (fifth round, 2019) and many others.

Paralysis by overanalysis

The most visible actions that front offices take are their selection of draft picks. They are scrutinized by their owners and other teams, and the track record can impact career viability. Fans and media also are vocal critics. Bill Polian was a gifted talent evaluator who made draft selections that turned three franchises — Buffalo, Carolina and Indianapolis — into winners. His services were in great demand. I would venture to guess that his process was focused on basic elements such as game film, background research and character assessment. Although the current evaluation tools are helpful in theory, we don’t have any proof that they actually are making organizations or individuals better talent evaluators. There is an abundance of information and so much public scrutiny in this process that it can cause executives to agonize, second-guess themselves and make mistakes.

Below are charts of the first-round selections in the 2005 and 1975 drafts, contrasting the era of April drafts to a time when the event was held in January, with a much shorter evaluation period. Career starts, via pro-football-reference, are included as a rough indicator of future productivity.

2005 NFL Draft

Team	Player	Pos.	Starts
1. 49ers	Alex Smith	QB	161
2. Dolphins	Ronnie Brown	RB	74
3. Browns	Braylon Edwards	WR	93
4. Bears	Cedric Benson	RB	71
5. Bucs	Carnell Williams	RB	58
6. Titans	Adam Jones	CB	104
7. Vikings	Troy Williamson	WR	24
8. Cardinals	Antrel Rolle	S	146
9. Redskins	Carlos Rogers	CB	123
10. Lions	Mike Williams	WR	30
11. Cowboys	DeMarcus Ware	OLB	173
12. Chargers	Shawne Merriman	OLB	59
13. Saints	Jamaal Brown	OT	84
14. Panthers	Thomas Davis	OLB	174
15. Chiefs	Derrick Johnson	OLB	170
16. Texans	Travis Johnson	DT	38
17. Bengals	David Pollack	LB	6
18. Vikings	Erasmus James	DE	12
19. Rams	Alex Barron	OT	75
20. Cowboys	Marcus Spears	DE	90
21. Jaguars	Matt Jones	WR	15
22. Ravens	Mark Clayton	WR	65
23. Raiders	Fabian Washington	CB	58
24. Packers	Aaron Rodgers	QB	174
25. Redskins	Jason Campbell	QB	79
26. Seahawks	Chris Spencer	C	95
27. Falcons	Roddy White	WR	149
28. Chargers	Luis Castillo	DT	79
29. Colts	Marlin Jackson	DB	32
30. Steelers	Heath Miller	TE	167
31. Eagles	Mike Patterson	DT	108
32. Patriots	Logan Mankins	OG	161

Notes: How did Aaron Rodgers fall to No. 24, when he was widely considered a candidate to be picked No. 1 overall. Many teams were unwilling to take a chance on him in the first round. Do they really trust the best player available adage or not? The Packers already had Brett Favre and only took Rodgers because he was by far and away the best player left on the board, regardless of positional need.

Overall, this was a solid group of first-round picks. The problem with the 2005 draft was that most of the best picks came outside of the top 10.

1975 NFL Draft

Team	Player	Pos.	Starts
1. Falcons	Steve Bartkowski	QB	127
2. Cowboys	Randy White	DT	165
3. Colts	Ken Huff	OG	104
4. Bears	Walter Payton	RB	184
5. Browns	Mack Mitchell	DE	44
6. Oilers	Robert Brazile	LB	147
7. Saints	Larry Burton	WR	25
8. Chargers	Gary Johnson	DT	123
9. Rams	Mike Fanning	DT	50
10. 49ers	Jimmy Webb	DT	74
11. Rams	Dennis Harrah	OT	144
12. Saints	Kurt Schumacher	OT	20
13. Lions	Lynn Boden	OG	47
14. Bengals	Glenn Cameron	LB	103
15. Oilers	Don Hardeman	RB	29
16. Patriots	Russ Francis	TE	148
17. Broncos	Louis Wright	CB	165
18. Cowboys	Thomas Henderson	LB	38
19. Bills	Tom Ruud	LB	5
20. Rams	Doug France	OT	87
21. Cardinals	Tim Gray	S	49
22. Chargers	Mike Williams	CB	101
23. Dolphins	Darryl Carlton	OT	36
24. Raiders	Neal Colzie	CB	51
25. Vikings	Mark Mullaney	DE	97
26. Steelers	Dave Brown	CB	203

Notes: Even without all of the bells and whistles of today’s scouting process, teams managed a better success rate on first round-selections than in 2005. More than half of the 26 picks had great careers, and many of them played a decade-plus in the NFL. Three of the top six picks — Randy White, Walter Payton and Robert Brazile — would become Hall of Famers.

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In 2020, teams have massive informational resources. They have reports from their in-house scouts, attendance at games, game film, all-star games, combine analytics and one-on-one interviews. They have Zoom interviews, and in cases like Alabama quarterback Tua Tagovailoa, a filmed pro scouting day. They also have reports from security firms that have researched players’ off-field behavior since grade school. They have more than enough data to make intelligent choices in this year’s draft.

Leigh Steinberg pioneered the agent industry on his way to becoming the preeminent agent in the sports world. With an unrivaled history of record-setting contracts, Leigh has secured more than $3 billion for 300-plus pro athlete clients and directed more than $750 million to various charities around the world. He has represented the No. 1 overall pick in the NFL draft an unprecedented eight times. He also has represented 10 Hall of Famers — Warren Moon, Troy Aikman, Steve Young, Derrick Thomas, Bruce Smith, Thurman Thomas, Kevin Greene, Kenny Easley, Howie Long and Edgerrin James — 62 first-round draft picks and over 150 Pro Bowl clients. In Leigh’s current practice, he partners with Chris Cabott to represent Patrick Mahomes, Aaron Jones, Jayon Brown and many other rising stars.

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