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The Kansas City Royals (75-60) and Houston Astros (72-62) play the 2nd game of a 4-game set at Minute Maid Park Friday. First pitch is scheduled for 8:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Royals vs. Astros odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Royals lead 3-1
The Astros won 6-3 as -157 favorites in the Thursday opener as the Over (7.5) hit. Houston took advantage of 2 Kansas City errors in the 8th, resulting in a 4-run inning for the Astros. Houston has a 4-game lead over the 2nd-place Seattle Mariners in the AL West and is -750 to win the division at BetMGM Sportsbook.
Royals RP Lucas Erceg (Loss, 1/3 IP, 3 ER, 2 H, 1 BB, 0 K) bobbled a comebacker for the 1st Kansas City error of the 8th inning Thursday. Later in the inning, a fielding error from LF MJ Melendez allowed Astros SS Jeremy Peña to score Houston’s 6th and final run. Kansas City is 2nd in the AL Central, 1½ games back of the division-leading Cleveland Guardians, and is in the 2nd AL Wild Card.
Royals at Astros projected starters
RHP Seth Lugo vs. LHP Framber Valdez
Lugo (14-8, 3.19 ERA) makes his 28th start. He has a 1.12 WHIP, 2.3 BB/9 and 7.6 K/9 in an AL-leading 172 IP.
- Last start: Loss, 5 1/3 IP, 5 ER (6 R), 11 H, 1 BB, 3 K in 11-3 home defeat vs. Philadelphia Phillies Sunday
- 2024 road stats: 8-3, 3.01 ERA (83 2/3 IP, 28 ER), 1.09 WHIP, 8.2 K/9 in 13 starts
- 2024 vs. Astros: 1-0, 1 home start (April 10), 6 IP, 2 ER, 7 H, 2 BB, 2 K in 11-2 win
- Career vs. Astros: 1-2, 7.04 ERA (15 1/3 IP, 12 ER), 1.89 WHIP, 5.9 K/9 in 3 starts
Valdez (13-6, 3.27 ERA) makes his 24th start. He has a 1.14 WHIP, 2.8 BB/9 and 8.7 K/9 in 143 1/3 IP.
- Last start: Loss, 5 2/3 IP, 3 ER, 6 H, 1 BB, 8 K in 3-2 setback at Baltimore Orioles Saturday
- 2024 home stats: 7-2, 2.96 ERA (70 IP, 23 ER), 1.10 WHIP, 9.5 K/9 in 11 starts
- Career vs. Royals: 2-2, 4.97 ERA (29 IP, 16 ER), 1.38 WHIP, 8.1 K/9 in 6 appearances (4 starts), including 1-1 with 4.38 ERA (12 1/3 IP, 6 ER) in 2 starts last year
Who’s going yard? Here’s a breakdown of today’s best home run props with our top picks. Include the BetMGM bonus code SBWIRE to score a $1,500 first-bet offer.
Royals at Astros odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:18 p.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Royals +145 (bet $100 to win $145) | Astros -175 (bet $175 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Royals +1.5 (-150) | Astros -1.5 (+125)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8 (O: +100 | U: -120)
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Royals at Astros picks and predictions
Prediction
Astros 5, Royals 3
Moneyline
The market is confident that the Astros (-175) are the better team in this spot despite Lugo (+5000 at BetMGM Sportsbook to win AL Cy Young) having a better season than Valdez (+6000). However, Houston ML is a bit too pricey for a team that is just 4-6 in its last 10 games.
PASS. Bet the run line and/or total instead.
Run line/Against the spread
While I like Houston to win straight up, the Astros’ last 4 victories have been by multiple runs, so I prefer taking the RL at plus odds.
Lugo was very average in his April 10 start against Houston and was somewhat lucky to record the win after allowing 7 hits. He has a 7.04 ERA and 1.89 WHIP in 3 career starts vs. the Astros — not a great stat line for those looking to back Kansas City.
BET ASTROS -1.5 (+125).
Over/Under
The Astros have scored 6 or more runs in back-to-back games and have had an easy time getting hits off of Lugo in his career. While Valdez has allowed 3 or fewer ER in 4 straight starts, this line — if played at 7.5 — should still be low enough to make the Over a decent play.
FanDuel Sportsbook has the better line for Over bettors: PLAY OVER 7.5 (-108).
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