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The Kansas City Royals (74-58) and Cleveland Guardians (75-57) play the 3rd contest of a 4-game set Tuesday. First pitch from Progressive Field is set for 6:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s lines around the Royals vs. Guardians odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Royals lead 6-2
The Royals have been a major thorn in the side of the Guardians this season, winning 6 of 8 meetings to date. Kansas City swept a doubleheader Monday at Progressive Field, winning Game 1 by a 4-3 score while pounding Cleveland 9-4 in Game 2. The Royals cashed as underdogs in both outings.
The Guardians have managed a plus-71 run differential, while the Royals have a plus-102 differential, which is 2nd in the American League. Kansas City has outscored Cleveland 42-31 in the previous 8 games. The Over/Under has split 4-4.
Kansas City has climbed to within a game of Cleveland in the AL Central, going 9-3 across the past 12 outings, while the Over is 13-5-1 in the previous 19 contests.
Cleveland has hit a poor time to hit the skids, going just 3-8 in the past 11 contests, including just 2-3 in the previous 5 outings at home. The Over has a slight 5-3 edge in the past 8 games for Cleveland while going 3-2 in the past 5 outings at home.
Royals at Guardians projected starters
RHP Michael Lorenzen vs. RHP Gavin Williams
Lorenzen (7-6, 3.47 ERA) makes his 23rd start and 24th appearance. He has a 1.25 WHIP, 4.1 BB/9 and 6.6 K/9 in 124 1/3 IP.
- Last start: Win, 7 IP, 0 ER, 4 H, 2 BB, 5 K in 3-0 road victory vs. Los Angeles Angels Wednesday
- 2024 road splits: 5-4, 3.80 ERA (73 1/3 IP, 31 ER), 1.30 WHIP, .226 opponents’ batting average (OBA), 35 BB, 54 K in 14 appearances (13 starts)
- Career vs. Guardians: 1-0, 1.64 ERA (11 IP, 2 ER), 1.18 WHIP, 4.9 K/9 in 2 starts
Williams (2-6, 5.13 ERA) makes his 3rd start. He has a 1.46 WHIP, 3.6 BB/9 and 9.9 K/9 in 47 1/3 IP.
- Last start: Loss, 4 1/3 IP, 3 ER, 4 H (1 HR), 4 BB, 5 K in 6-0 road setback vs. New York Yankees Thursday
- 2024 home splits: 0-4, 8.66 ERA (17 2/3 IP, 17 ER), 1.98 WHIP, .351 OBA, 8 BB, 24 K in 4 starts
- Career vs. Royals: 1-0, 1.62 ERA (16 2/3 IP, 3 ER), 0.96 WHIP, 9.7 K/9 in 3 starts
Who’s going yard? Here’s a breakdown of today’s best home run props with our top picks. Include the BetMGM bonus code SBWIRE to score a $1,500 first-bet offer.
Royals at Guardians odds
Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:46 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Royals +120 (bet $100 to win $120) | Guardians -142 (bet $142 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Royals +1.5 (-176) | Guardians -1.5 (+146)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -114 | U: -106)
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Royals at Guardians picks and predictions
Prediction
Royals 6, Guardians 4
Moneyline
The ROYALS (+120) are a solid play in Game 3 of this series as Kansas City looks to pull even with the Guardians (-142) in the AL Central.
Cleveland has held a firm grip on the division to this point, but that grip has loosened lately with a 3-8 skid in the past 11 outings. To make matters worse, Williams has been horrific at home, posting an 0-4 record and 8.66 ERA in 17 2/3 IP across 4 starts at Progressive Field. He simply cannot be trusted. Williams is just 1-3 with a 7.36 ERA across 18 1/3 IP in 4 August starts.
Run line/Against the spread
The Royals +1.5 (-176) will cost you nearly 2 times your potential return, if you require a little bit of insurance and cannot bring yourselves to play Kansas City straight up for whatever reason. It isn’t worth it.
PASS.
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Over/Under
OVER 8.5 (-114) is a great play in this Tuesday battle.
The Over has cashed in 4 of the past 5 games for the Royals while going 6-4-1 in the past 11 outings on the road.
For the Guardians, the Over has a 3-2 edge in the past 5 games, all at home. With Williams struggling at home, the Royals could fill up the stat sheet against him, doing most of the heavy lifting for the Over themselves.
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