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The Kansas City Royals (85-75) and Atlanta Braves (87-71) play the middle contest of a 3-game interleague series Saturday at Truist Park. First pitch is scheduled for 7:20 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s MLB odds around the Royals vs. Braves odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Braves lead 1-0; Atlanta won 3-0 in 2023
The Braves miraculously played Friday night despite severe flooding in the Greater Atlanta area due to the recent passing for Hurricane Helene. Atlanta picked up a 3-0 win as a heavy favorite (-178) as the Under (7.5) came through.
With the 8-4 loss by the New York Mets in Milwaukee, the Braves pulled into a tie with the Mets at 87-71 with 4 games remaining for each team, including a makeup doubleheader Monday.
RHP Reynaldo Lopez (shoulder) returns from injury to start. He was limited to just 25 pitches in his last start in Washington Sept. 10.
With Minnesota’s loss Friday, the Royals clinched a postseason spot. While Kansas City is just 3-8 in the past 11 games since Sept. 15, it has allowed just 9 runs in the past 5 outings, or 1.8 runs per game (RPG), as the pitching staff has gotten untracked. The Under is 4-1 in the past 5 games for the Royals, while going 18-6-1 in the past 25 outings.
Royals at Braves projected starters
RHP Seth Lugo vs. RHP Reynaldo Lopez
Lugo (16-9, 3.03 ERA) makes his 33rd start. He has a 1.09 WHIP, 2.1 BB/9 and 7.8 K/9 in 204 2/3 IP.
- Last start: Loss, 7 IP, 2 ER, 3 H, 0 BB, 5 K in 2-0 home setback vs. San Francisco Giants Sunday
- 2024 road splits: 9-3, 2.67 ERA, 97 2/3 IP, 29 ER, 79 H, 8 HR, 2 BB, 95 K, .218 opponents’ batting average (OBA), 1.03 WHIP in 15 starts
- Last 7 games: 3-2, 3.00 ERA (45 IP, 15 ER), 41 H, 8 BB, 43 K, 1.09 WHIP
- Career vs. Braves: 5-5, 3.79 ERA (57 IP, 24 ER), 54 H, 7 HR, 19 BB, 54 K, 1.28 WHIP, 8.5 K/9 in 28 appearances (4 starts)
Lopez (8-5, 2.03 ERA) makes his 25th start. He has a 1.15 WHIP, 2.9 BB/9 and 9.6 K/9 in 128 2/3 IP.
- Last start: No-decision, 1 IP, 0 ER, 1 H, 0 BB, 1 K in 12-0 road victory vs. Washington Nationals Sept. 10 (25 pitches)
- 2024 home splits: 4-2, 1.82 ERA, 74 IP, 15 ER, 6 HR, 28 BB, 84 K, .211 OBA, 1.14 WHIP in 13 starts
- Last 7 games: 1-2, 2.45 ERA (33 IP, 9 ER), 28 H, 8 BB, 42 K, 1.09 WHIP
- Career vs. Royals: 5-5, 5.24 ERA (87 2/3 IP, 51 ER), 106 H, 20 HR, 24 BB, 65 K, 1.48 WHIP, 6.7 K/9 in 26 appearances (14 starts)
Who’s going yard? Here’s a breakdown of today’s best home run props with our top picks. Include the BetMGM bonus code SBWIRE to score a $1,500 first-bet offer.
Royals at Braves odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list of MLB odds. Lines last updated at 11:50 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Royals +170 (bet $100 to win $170) | Braves -210 (bet $210 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Royals +1.5 (-130) | Braves -1.5 (+105)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8 (O: -105 | U: -115)
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Royals at Braves picks and predictions
Prediction
Braves 4, Royals 3
Moneyline
The BRAVES (-210) are worth a look as favorites in the 2nd game of this crucial series. Atlanta needs to keep pace with New York as the 2 NL East rivals jockey for a playoff spot.
The Royals (+170) haven’t been playing very good baseball lately anyway, but now that they’ve clinched a playoff spot, they won’t be playing with the same kind of urgency as the home side.
Run line/Against the spread
Kansas City +1.5 (-130) will probably hit, but laying $1.30 on the Royals isn’t recommended when they just clinched a playoff spot.
PASS, and if you like K.C., just play it straight up at plus money.
Over/Under
UNDER 8 (-115) is worth a look in a game which should have a playoff feel.
Besides, it’s been all about the Under for Kansas City lately, going 4-1 in the past 5 games and 18-6-1 across the past 25 outings. The Under is 4-1 in Lugo’s previous 5 starts, too.
For the Braves, the Under is on a 4-0-1 run across the past 5 games.
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