Jimmy Garoppolo’s 2020 season represents a significant turning point for him and the 49ers franchise moving forward. The good news for both parties is the significant bump in production a couple quarterbacks have gotten in their second season under Kyle Shanahan. Matt Schaub took a leap in 2009 where he led the NFL in passing yards, and Matt Ryan did it in 2016 on his way to an MVP award. Can Garoppolo undergo the same sort of transformation?
There are a few things to consider with Garoppolo when determining what kind of trajectory he’s on. First is the experience factor. Garoppolo has more than one season in San Francisco, but his first five games under Shanahan came in the middle of a season after a trade. His next season was limited to three games due to a torn ACL, and the entire offseason after that was spent rehabbing his injury.
The 2019 season and 2020 offseason represent the first real normal calendar year for Garoppolo since arriving in San Francisco. That’s why we can consider this season his second under Shanahan despite having 24 regular season starts under his belt.
Ryan is the statistical jump people tend to circle when citing what Shanahan can do for a quarterback’s production. Shanahan arrived in Atlanta in 2015 and spent two seasons there. The jump between 2015 and 2016 for Ryan is absurd. Here are the numbers:
2015: 16 games, 66.3% completions, 4,591 yards, 21 touchdowns, 16 interceptions, 7.5 yards per attempt, 89.0 rating
2016: 16 games, 69.9% completions, 4,944 yards, 38 touchdowns, 7 interceptions, 9.3 yards per attempt, 117.1 rating
Ryan’s touchdown rate (percentage of throws that went for touchdowns) also leapt from 3.4 to 7.1, and his interception rate was cut in half from 2.6 to 3.1.
This is the leap 49ers fans tend to circle when projecting a ceiling for Garoppolo in 2020. It’s an understandable conclusion considering where Ryan’s 2015 production was in relation to Garoppolo’s 2019 output.
The fact is that season was a complete outlier for Ryan where he was surrounded by an excellent group of weapons and had everything click into place. Those numbers so far exceed anything Ryan did prior or since that it looks more like a one-year bolt of lightning than the finished work of an offensive guru.
Perhaps those stars align for Garoppolo too. Maybe he does have everything fall into place and he becomes an unstoppable machine under center that rolls to an MVP and an another trip to the Super Bowl.
While that’s probably unrealistic given just how stark the difference is between Years 1 and 2 under Shanahan for Ryan, it doesn’t mean that there isn’t more evidence Garoppolo should see an improvement next season.
Let’s look at what Schaub did in his second year under Shanahan when he was the Texans’ offensive coordinator. Here’s a reminder of his numbers in his first season in 2008, and his numbers the following year:
2008: 11 games, 66.1% completions, 3,043 yards, 15 touchdowns, 10 interceptions, 8.0 yards per attempt, 92.7 rating
2009: 16 games, 67.9% completions, 4,770 yards, 29 touchdowns, 15 interceptions, 8.2 yards per attempt, 98.6 rating
To get a better idea how Schaub improved since his raw totals are skewed by the 11 starts in 2008, his touchdown rate went from 3.9 to 5.0, his interception rate stayed the same, and his yards per game jumped by 22.5 yards.
This is a more reasonable type of jump to consider for Garoppolo, which still means he’s putting together an outstanding year. It pales in comparison to the atmospheric leap Ryan took, but it’d still be an excellent year for the 49ers’ quarterback if he takes the same steps forward Schaub did in that second season. Here’s about what those numbers would look like:
71.7% completions, 4,332 yards, 34 touchdowns, 14 interceptions, 8.6 yards per attempt, 108.4 rating
The specific numbers matter less than the areas Garoppolo would see an uptick in production. He’d be completing a higher percentage of his passes for more yards with more touchdowns and roughly the same amount of interceptions.
Barring a major change over the offseason, interceptions are going to be at least a small part of Garoppolo’s game. He’s a gunslinger who trades an interception or two for some spectacular completions. While 14 wouldn’t be ideal, it’d be an okay trade off for a quarterback that’s going to finish near the top of the league in every other category.
There’s a scenario as well where we see any major improvement from the 49ers’ quarterback next season. Perhaps 2019 was his ceiling and he’ll always hover around 4,000 yards with fewer than 30 touchdowns and flirting with 15 interceptions.
A career year from Garoppolo will mean a pretty significant shift in offensive philosophy for the 49ers. They ran the ball more often than every team but the Ravens last year. It’ll also mean San Francisco added another playmaker or two at receiver. Both Schaub and Ryan had players like Andre Johnson and Julio Jones to lean on. Garoppolo doesn’t have that type of go-to threat on the boundary.
The one exception to the Shanahan second-year theory is Robert Griffin III, he tore two knee ligaments during the playoffs his rookie year and never rebounded after a stellar rookie campaign.
However, both quarterbacks that have gotten a second healthy season under Shanahan though have seen improved production. Garoppolo finally got 16 games in last season and will get a full, healthy offseason (and perhaps then some) to refine the areas he struggled in. He’s also going to be another year removed from ACL surgery which could provide the added benefit of more mobility.
A Matt Ryan-type renaissance isn’t probably in the cards given how uniquely incredible his turnaround was, but a smaller improvement in all the areas that matter while keeping the interceptions from rising would put Garoppolo and the 49ers in a good position to make another deep postseason run next year.
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