The Penn State Nittany Lions (0-4) host the Big Ten rival Iowa Hawkeyes (2-2) at Beaver Stadium at 3:30 p.m. ET Saturday. Below, we analyze the Iowa-Penn State college football betting odds and lines, with picks and predictions.
Iowa at Penn State: Betting odds, spread and lines
Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Thursday at 12:30 p.m. ET.
- Money line: Iowa -129 (bet $129 to win $100) | Penn State +105 (bet $100 to win $105)
- Against the spread/ATS: Iowa -2.5 (-110) | Penn State +2.5 (-110)
- Over/Under: 47.5 (O: -106 | U: -115)
Iowa at Penn State: Three things to know
- Penn State QB Sean Clifford was benched for QB Will Levis in the second quarter of last week’s 30-23 loss to the Nebraska Cornhuskers due to Clifford’s continued turnovers. He threw an interception and gave up a strip-sack fumble for a touchdown in the first half. Clifford is still projected to start Saturday.
- Following an 0-2 start, Iowa has won back-to-back games against Michigan State and Minnesota by a combined score of 84-14. The Hawkeyes offense is being carried by the two-headed rushing attack of RBs Tyler Goodson and Mekhi Sargent.
- James Franklin’s Nittany Lions are 4-0 straight up and 3-1 ATS versus Iowa since he was hired as head coach in 2014.
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Iowa at Penn State: Odds, betting lines, predictions and picks
Prediction
Iowa 24, Penn State 19
Money line (ML)
Just because this is the worst Nittany Lions team since Franklin took over as head coach doesn’t mean head coach Kirk Ferentz and the Hawkeyes are going to take it easy on them.
Penn State hoped to have what Iowa has in its backfield but instead RBs Journey Brown and Noah Cain aren’t on the roster. Because of which Penn State’s rush game has plummeted this year, the Nittany Lions are 89th in yards per carry and 71st in rushing yards per game.
Penn State’s defense has been awful this season in high leverage situations: 100th in opponent’s 3rd down conversion percentage and 85th in opponent’s red-zone scoring percentage. Additionally, the Nittany Lions have negative net yards per play differential and are ranked 105th in both points per play and opponent’s points per play.
I am a little hesitant to take the Hawkeyes here because they’ve been steamed from an underdog to a favorite, but I’ll lean IOWA (-129) for a quarter-unit.
Against the spread (ATS)
PASS ON THE SPREAD. Obviously, it’s Iowa ATS or nothing but the market is hammering the Hawkeyes and it feels like a trap. Generally, sharps would like to fade the public because the house usually wins and this is a perfect sell-high spot for Iowa and a buy-low spot for Penn State.
Over/Under (O/U)
Iowa’s advanced defensive metrics this season are fantastic: Sixth in overall defensive FEI ratings, opponent’s busted drive rate and opponent’s turnover rate, and ninth in opponent’s points per drive, according to Football Outsiders.
You’ve read plenty of reasons to be concerned about Penn State’s offense but the biggest issues are its 126th rank in red-zone scoring percentage and 116th in offensive turnover rate. If the Nittany Lions are able to move the ball but continue their miscues and penalties, the UNDER 47.5 (-115) is a lock.
Plus Penn State’s defense has been trash all season (ranked 95th in opponent’s points per game) yet its Over/Under record is 1-2-1 O/U. The Lions should have success against Iowa’s first-year starting QB Spencer Petras, who has the lowest passer efficiency in the Big Ten.
GIMME UNDER 47.5 (-115) for 1.5 units.
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