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One of the most popular prop bets of the Super Bowl will be the coin toss.
It’s also one of the most difficult to predict because it’s purely luck. Neither the San Francisco 49ers or Kansas City Chiefs will have any impact on the flip, other than the fact that San Francisco (the visiting team) will be the one calling heads or tails; and, unless you’re superstitious, that doesn’t impact which side of the coin will be face up.
So should you bet on the Super Bowl coin toss? And if so, is heads or tails the better call?
The former is completely up to the bettor, while the answer to the latter can be surmised by looking at past history. For starters, though, let’s take a look at BetMGM‘s betting lines for heads and tails – which are predictably the same:
- Heads -104
- Tails -104
New to sports betting? -104 juice means if you bet $10 on either heads or tails, you’ll profit $9.62.
Looking back at past Super Bowls, tails has come up more often.
In the big game’s history, the coin toss result has been tails 28 times and heads 25 times. More recently, though, tails has been the better pick.
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Since Super Bowl XLVIII, which was played in 2014, tails has come up five times in six years. The only time in that span heads came up was in Super Bowl LII between the New England Patriots and Atlanta Falcons.
Right before that six-year stretch, however, heads was riding a hot streak. From Super Bowl XLIII to XLVII, heads won five years in a row, and six of seven years.
The nine years before that, tails dominated. From Super Bowl XXXII to XL, tails won eight out of nine times.
Also see:
So in the last 22 years, it’s been all about the streaks. Heads and tails haven’t alternated in four straight years since 1994-1997. If heads wins Sunday, it’ll be the first time the call has alternated four years in a row since then.
If you’re going to bet on the toss, there’s really no strategy. It’s all personal preference, but if you like to ride hot streaks, tails is probably the better pick.
After all, tails never fails.
Want some action on the coin toss or other prop bets? Visit BetMGM and place your bets on the big game.
Follow @SportsbookWire on Twitter.
Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage.
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