Jacob deGrom is about to have his toughest test on Wednesday since returning to the New York Mets rotation in early August. He’s set to face the major league-leading Los Angeles Dodgers in just his second start against a team outside of the National League East.
DeGrom has been solid in his month of action, which includes five starts for a 3-1 record, 2.15 ERA and incredible 46 strikeouts through 29 1/3 innings. The unstoppable force will meet immovable object when his Mets clash with the the best team in baseball that also happens to be the hottest.
Right now, the books favor unstoppable force, as deGrom and the Mets are favored by 1.5 points at Tipico Sportsbook. But while I expect him to be his usual great self, taking New York against that spread is a bet you absolutely have to fade.
LA has won nine of its last 11 games, including the first game of this series against the Mets on Tuesday. That game better informs how to approach Wednesday’s matchup in Queens.
The Mets lost 4-3, struggling to produce offense in a continuing trend from the past few days. They’ve managed just six runs in their last three games combined. With Tyler Anderson on the mound for LA, I expect that to continue. He beat the Mets 6-1 in June.
Despite their win Tuesday, however, the Dodgers managed just five hits in 5 1/3 innings off Mets starter Taijuan Walker, who was solid outside of a rough third inning. LA finished with seven hits for a second straight game after requiring extra innings to top the Marlins on Monday. On Saturday, the Dodgers managed just one run on six hits.
Considering the pitching matchup and how much each team has struggled at the plate, the best bet from this game is under 6.5 runs for -105 odds. I’d even consider taking the alternate run total of under 5.5 runs for +135 odds, with a 4-1 or 3-2 final score is very reasonable to expect.
I’d also lean towards the Dodgers covering the spread, though the -170 odds don’t do much as a standalone bet. Plus money on their moneyline is a bigger swing worth considering, because if the game comes down to the bullpens, the Dodgers’ is as good as any and their offense is more likely to come up with timely hits.