There was this interesting and somewhat hilarious theory back when Patrick Mahomes started lighting the NFL up that if you just ran the ball a lot and controlled the clock against the Chiefs, you’d be alright, because limiting Mahomes’ time on the field limited the Chiefs’ scoring opportunities.
We’re over that now, right? Good. Now, back to our Super Bowl previews.
When the Chiefs and Buccaneers faced off in Week 12 and the Chiefs won, 27-24, it’s not as if running the ball was a priority for Tampa Bay’s offense anyway. Kansas City shot out to a 17-0 lead, Tom Brady threw 41 passes, and Bucs running backs Leonard Fournette and Ronald Jones II had just 12 rushing attempts between them.
But here’s the thing: On those 12 rushing attempts, Jones and Fournette gained 76 yards. Jones was the relative force multiplier in this sense, picking up 66 yards on nine carries, including this 34-yard run with 3:04 left in the third quarter.
Check out the defensive personnel here, because it could be extremely important to how the Chiefs line up in the big game. They’re running dime defense — six defensive backs — and Tampa Bay’s offensive line is all about the power here. Anthony Hitchens [No. 53] is the sole linebacker, through safety Daniel Sorensen [No. 49] is at linebacker depth. The point is, the Bucs understand that they have an advantage from a power situation, and they know how to use it.
Why is dime defensive important to our discussion of the Bucs’ run game? Because the Chiefs play a ton of dime. It’s essentially their base defense. Per Sports Info Solutions, only the Packers and Panthers played more snaps this season in dime than Kansas City’s 316, and only the Patriots and Panthers played more dime snaps against the run than Kansas City’s 92. Dime is an essential construct of defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo’s concepts because it allows the Chiefs to do all kinds of great things in coverage (much more on this very soon), but it can leave a vulnerability.
The Chiefs have Sorenson as a hybrid linebacker, and of course they have Tyrann Mathieu as the do-it-all Joker and the best “guesser” since Ed Reed, but what that leaves you with is a lot of bog nickel — three cornerbacks, three safeties. The Chiefs are not designed to deal with power running situations, and because of the ways they’re designed, they don’t see it as a specific liability.
One key for the Bucs could be to make it a liability. In Week 12, the Chiefs were caught in dime on six Buccaneers runs, going for 48 yards and two first downs. And this season, Jones and Fournette have combined for 118 yards, 71 yards after contact, and one touchdown against defenses with six defensive backs.
And per Football Outsiders, the Chiefs rank dead last in the league in “Power Success Rate” (Percentage of runs on third or fourth down, two yards or less to go, that achieved a first down or touchdown), and 30th in “Stuffed Rate” (Percentage of runs where the running back is tackled at or behind the line of scrimmage).
This isn’t a big deal when your offense is capable of hanging a thirty-burger on any opponent in five minutes, but if the Buccaneers can keep the game close early, it would be wise to consider a run-centric attack more than people might think — not because it’ll keep Patrick Mahomes in check, but because it will balance an offense quite capable of its own aerial show.