There are few things that destroy fantasy teams like using the first overall pick on a player who is either injured or has a steep decline in production. In the case of Indianapolis Colts running back Jonathan Taylor, you had both.
Taylor came into 2022 as the consensus No. 1 overall fantasy pick due to one of the greatest running back seasons of recent history in 2021. He made a case to be the league MVP, rushing for 1,811 yards, catching 40 passes for 360 yards and scoring 20 touchdowns. However, injuries, a struggling offensive line, and poor quarterback play resulted in Taylor’s production dropping considerably – by his standards.
In his first two seasons, Taylor averaged 5.3 yards a carry. That number dropped to 4.5 yards last season – a solid average for most backs, but a step backward for Taylor. Most telling was that his touchdown total dropped from 20 to four, which left fantasy players empty-handed more weeks than not. However, the blame can’t be pinned solely on Taylor, who missed games in October, November, December and January due to ankle injuries. There were other contributing factors that led to his decline.
The Colts had injuries on the offensive line last season and struggled at left tackle positions as they transitioned to a new starter. The biggest issue may have been aging quarterback Matt Ryan. He was a glacier in the pocket and defenses didn’t have to prepare for him in the run game. Colts quarterbacks were sacked 60 times last season, because teams could bring pressure that not only reached the quarterback but flooded running lanes for Taylor as there was no threat of diversity in the Colts’ rushing attack. That has changed a lot over the last six months.
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Ryan and Nick Foles are gone. The team drafted versatile Anthony Richardson to be the new franchise quarterback and signed veteran Gardner Minshew to be a placeholder in the event Richardson needs time to get the call to be the starter.
The Colts made numerous changes on offense in their coaching staff, bringing in people with success in elevating young quarterbacks. Head coach Shane Steichen was the offensive coordinator for the Philadelphia Eagles, where not only did he oversee the ascent of Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia had the league’s most productive running games the last two seasons. Offensive coordinator Jim Bob Cooter helped Trevor Lawrence have a breakout second season after a rough start in Jacksonville. Quarterbacks coach Cam Turner worked to get Kyler Murray prepared for the NFL in Arizona. All three of these coaches were instrumental in quickly elevating young quarterbacks in the NFL and taking advantage of their versatility as passers and runners. The same can be expected with Richardson and, in the process, give Taylor more opportunities as defenses need to be on their heels to prepare for RPO formations.
Fantasy football outlook
Those who invested in Taylor last year will likely view him as poisonous, but the offseason changes only bolster the idea that Taylor can return to form and be the most productive workhorse back in the league. He will probably slide down a handful of spots in the draft, but he is healthy after offseason ankle surgery, has little competition, is entering the final year of his rookie contract and has two Pro Bowl interior offensive linemen in front of him.
The only serious concern right now is whether the mobile Richardson will steal enough rushing touchdowns to lower Taylor’s ceiling.
It’s hard to say that someone who will likely still be a top-five draft pick could be a value pick, but Taylor has all the incentive he needs to bounce back and make things difficult for the Colts not to give him a second contract.