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The Houston Astros (46-38) and Texas Rangers (50-34) close out a 4-game set Monday at Globe Life Field. First pitch is at 2:05 p.m. ET (MLB Network). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Astros vs. Rangers odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: tied 3-3
Houston has taken 2 of the first 3 games of the series with a 5-3 win Sunday. The Astros are 5-2 over the last 7 games and 15-7 within the AL West this season. They sit 4 games behind the Rangers for the division lead.
The Rangers have lost 3 of their last 4 games and 6 of their last 10 to lose some ground in the division. Texas is still 27-17 at home and 16-10 within the division and it received a boost with the acquisition of reliever LHP Aroldis Chapman via trade. He made his first appearance Sunday and struck out 2 in an inning of work.
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Astros at Rangers projected starters
RHP Cristian Javier vs. LHP Martin Perez
Javier (7-1, 3.72 ERA) makes his 17th start. He has a 1.17 WHIP, 2.6 BB/9 and 8.1 K/9 through 87 IP.
- Last start: No-decision, 4 IP, 6 ER, 8 H, 1 BB, 1 K in a 10-7 road win vs. St. Louis Cardinals Wednesday
- Last 5 starts vs. Rangers: 2-1, 2.96 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 35 K in 27 1/3 IP
- K-rate is way down from 11.7% in 2022 to 8.1% this year
Perez (7-3, 4.28 ERA) makes his 17th start. He has a 1.42 WHIP, 3.0 BB/9 and 6.0 K/9 across 90 1/3 IP.
- Last start: No-decision, 6 IP, 2 ER, 4 H, 2 BB, 4 K in an 8-3 win vs. Detroit Tigers Tuesday
- Last 5 starts vs. Astros: 2-3, 4.35 ERA, 1.52 WHIP, 21 K in 31 IP
Astros at Rangers odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 8:43 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Astros +105 (bet $100 to win $105) | Rangers -125 (bet $125 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Astros +1.5 (-185) | Rangers -1.5 (+150)
- Over/Under (O/U): 9 (O: -115 | U: -105)
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Astros at Rangers picks and predictions
Prediction
Rangers 6, Astros 4
Moneyline
Something is up with Javier. He’s allowed 10 ER over 6 1/3 IP across his last 2 starts and has only struck out 6 batters in his last 4 starts, covering 17 1/3 IP. Javier fanned 194 batters in 148 2/3 IP last year. He has surrendered at least 4 ER in 3 of his last 4 starts.
The RANGERS (-125) will get to him, so that’s what I’ll bet.
Run line/Against the spread
Texas has only played a single 1-run game over its last 10 outings. Each of the 6 meetings between the clubs this year has been decided by multiple runs. The Rangers are 27-17 on the RL at home and with the way Javier is trending, I’ll LEAN RANGERS -1.5 (+150).
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Over/Under
The first 3 games of the series went Under or pushed. There have actually only been 3 Overs cash in this matchup across the last 10 games. Monday feels a little different, though. It’s a humid 94 degrees with an 8-mph wind blowing out to left-center.
The Over has cashed in Javier’s last 4 road starts. Perez has allowed at least 2 ER in 6 of 7 starts. He also allows a lot of traffic with that 1.42 WHIP. The ball flies Monday. Take the OVER 9 (-115).
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