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The Houston Astros (50-46) and Seattle Mariners (52-46) open a 3-game set at T-Mobile Park Friday. First pitch is scheduled for 10:10 p.m. ET (MLB Network). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Astros vs. Mariners odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Mariners lead 5-2
The Astros lost 2 of 3 games at home vs. the Texas Rangers before the All-Star break. Houston wrapped up the series with a 4-2 loss as -120 favorites Sunday with the Under (8) hitting.
The Mariners had a disappointing finish to the 1st half of the season, losing 3 of 4 games at the Los Angeles Angels July 11-14. However, Seattle is still in 1st place in the AL West, with an ever-so-slight 1-game lead over the 2nd-place Astros.
Astros at Mariners projected starters
RHP Hunter Brown vs. TBD
Brown (7-6, 4.39 ERA) makes his 19th start and 20th appearance. He has a 1.37 WHIP, 3.5 BB/9 and 9.6 K/9 in 98 1/3 IP.
- Last start: Win, 6 IP, 2 ER, 5 H, 2 BB, 5 K in 6-3 home victory over Rangers July 12
- 2024 road stats: 3-4, 5.70 ERA (42 2/3 IP, 27 ER), 1.64 WHIP, 10.3 K/9 in 9 appearances (8 starts)
- 2024 vs. Mariners: 0-0, 2.61 ERA (10 1/3 IP, 3 ER), 1.26 WHIP, 12.2 K/9 in 2 starts
- Career vs. Mariners (regular season): 0-2, 7.88 ERA (16 IP, 14 ER), 2.13 WHIP, 15.2 K/9 in 4 starts
The Mariners had not yet announced a starter, but RHP Luis Castillo (8-9, 3.53 ERA) is expected to make his 21st start. He has a 1.17 WHIP, 2.6 BB/9 and 8.9 K/9 in 117 1/3 IP.
- Last start: Win, 6 IP, 0 R, 4 H, 2 BB, 5 K in 11-0 victory at Angels July 11
- 2024 home stats: 5-3, 2.98 ERA (60 1/3 IP, 20 ER), 1.04 WHIP, 9.8 K/9 in 10 starts
- 2024 vs. Astros: 0-0, 3.00 ERA (6 IP, 2 ER), 5 H, 1 BB, 6 K in 1 start, a 4-2 home win May 28
- Career vs. Astros (regular season): 2-1, 3.66 ERA (32 IP, 13 ER), 1.06 WHIP, 8.2 K/9 in 5 starts
Who’s going yard? Here’s a breakdown of today’s best home run props with our top picks. Include the BetMGM bonus code SBWIRE to score a $1,500 first-bet offer.
Astros at Mariners odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:13 p.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Astros +110 (bet $100 to win $110) | Mariners -135 (bet $135 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Astros +1.5 (-190) | Mariners -1.5 (+155)
- Over/Under (O/U): 7 (O: -115 | U: -105)
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Astros at Mariners picks and predictions
Prediction
Mariners 4, Astros 3
Moneyline
The MARINERS (-135) are 24-13 as home favorites this season, and Brown hasn’t recorded a win vs. Seattle in 4 career starts. Since losing his 1st 3 home starts this season, Castillo has won his last 5 decisions at T-Mobile Park, with the Mariners going 6-1 in those outings.
BET MARINERS (-135).
Run line/Against the spread
Houston +1.5 (-190) will likely hit, as Seattle’s 29th-ranked home offense (3.58 runs per game) doesn’t score enough runs to regularly blow teams out. However, it’s hard to stay profitable long term betting into lines with this much vig.
PASS. Bet the ML and/or total instead.
Over/Under
The Under is 17-9 (65.4%) this season when the Mariners play divisional opponents and 23-13-1 (63.9%) when they’re home favorites. Seven is a key number in MLB totals, though, and I wouldn’t look to play this unless you can find it at +106 or better.
LEAN UNDER 7 (-105).
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