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The Houston Astros (24-32) and Seattle Mariners (31-26) wrap up a 4-game series Thursday at T-Mobile Park. First pitch is scheduled for 4:10 p.m. ET (ESPN+). Let’s analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s lines around the Astros vs. Mariners odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Mariners lead 4-1
The Astros won the 1st meeting at Minute Maid Park in Houston on May 3, but the Mariners have won 4 straight meetings since, outscoring Houston by a 14-5 clip.
The Mariners walked it off in 10 innings on Wednesday, winning 2-1. It’s the 2nd consecutive comeback win in the late innings, as Seattle erased a 2-1 Houston lead with 3 runs in the bottom of the 8th on Tuesday.
Houston has dropped 3 in a row, while going 4-7 in the past 11 games since May 18. The Under has cashed in 5 consecutive outings for the Astros.
Seattle has won 4 in a row, extending its lead to 3 1/2 games over the Texas Rangers in the AL West. The M’s are 18-10 at home, although they still have a minus-3 run differential on the season.
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Astros at Mariners projected starters
RHP Spencer Arrighetti vs. RHP Logan Gilbert
Arrighetti (2-5, 6.93 ERA) makes his 9th start. He has a 1.78 WHIP, 1.9 BB/9 and 6.4 K/9 in 37 2/3 IP.
- Last start: Loss, 5 IP, 3 ER, 5 H, 0 HR, 3 BB, 7 K in 3-1 road loss vs. Oakland Athletics last Saturday
- 2024 road splits: 0-4, 10.26 ERA (16 2/3 IP, 19 ER), 2.28 WHIP, .360 opponents’ batting average (OBA), 4 HR, 11 BB, 21 K in 4 starts
Gilbert (3-2, 3.06 ERA) makes his 12th start. He has a 0.96 WHIP, 2.4 BB/9 and 8.4 K/9 in 70 2/3 IP.
- Last start: No-decision, 6 IP, 1 ER, 3 H, 0 BB, 4 K in 3-1 road loss vs. Washington Nationals last Saturday
- 2024 home splits: 1-1, 2.36 ERA (26 2/3 IP, 7 ER), 0.79 WHIP, .165 OBA, 2 HR, 6 BB, 30 K in 4 starts
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Astros at Mariners odds
Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 6:48 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Astros +114 (bet $100 to win $114) | Mariners -134 (bet $134 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Astros +1.5 (-184) | Mariners -1.5 (+152)
- Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -112 | U: -108)
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Astros at Mariners picks and predictions
Prediction
Mariners 7, Astros 2
Moneyline
The MARINERS (-134) look to cap off the 4-game sweep, and the pitching scales are strongly tipped in their favor.
The Astros (+114) turn to Arrighetti to stop the slide, and help avoid the broom, but he is easily the worst pitcher they’ve used in the series. Arrighetti has allowed just shy of 7 runs per every 9 IP, and he has been atrocious on the road.
Conversely, M’s manager Scott Servais hands the ball to Gilbert, arguably the team’s best starting pitcher.
Run line/Against the spread
The MARINERS -1.5 (+162) are a solid play, if you’re a little less conservative. Obviously, don’t play both the moneyline and run line together.
Again, Arrighetti has been terrible, especially on the road, and the M’s should stay hot with the sticks.
Over/Under
OVER 7.5 (-115) is worth a look in this series finale.
Again, this boils down to Arrighetti, who has a 10.26 ERA in 4 road starts. He has been very giving, and the Mariners should roll up plenty of runs early and often against the shaky right-hander.
The Under has dominated for the Astros lately, cashing in 5 in a row, but the Over is 4-1 in Arrighetti’s previous 5 assignments.
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