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The Houston Astros (24-31) and Seattle Mariners (30-26) play the 3rd game of a 4-game set Wednesday. First pitch from T-Mobile Park is scheduled for 9:40 p.m. ET (MLB Network). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Astros vs. Mariners odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Mariners lead 4-1
The Astros lost 4-2 as +111 underdogs in the 2nd game of the series Tuesday as the Under (7.5) hit. Houston has lost back-to-back games and is 4-6 over its last 10.
CF Julio Rodríguez and 3B Josh Rojas drove in runs during a 3-run 8th inning for the Mariners, who cashed as -120 favorites. Seattle has won 3 straight, bouncing back from a 4-game skid May 22-25.
Astros at Mariners projected starters
RHP Justin Verlander vs. RHP George Kirby
Verlander (3-2, 3.60 ERA) makes his 8th start. He has a 1.23 WHIP, 3.2 BB/9 and 7.9 K/9 in 40 IP.
- Last start: Win, 6 IP, 1 ER (2 R), 8 H, 0 BB, 9 K in 6-3 victory at Oakland A’s Friday
- 2024 road stats: 3-1, 3.18 ERA (28 1/3 IP, 10 ER), 1.20 WHIP in 5 starts
- Career vs. Mariners (regular season): 22-10, 3.02 ERA (253 IP, 85 ER), 1.04 WHIP in 38 starts, including 1-0 with a 1.13 ERA (8 IP, 1 ER) in 1 start last season
Kirby (4-5, 4.33 ERA) makes his 12th start. He has a 1.03 WHIP, 0.9 BB/9 and 8.2 K/9 in 62 1/3 IP.
- Last start: Loss, 6 IP, 5 ER, 6 H, 1 BB, 3 K in 6-1 setback at Washington Nationals Friday
- 2024 home stats: 4-1, 2.97 ERA (30 1/3 IP, 10 ER), 0.82 WHIP in 5 starts
- 2024 vs. Astros: 0-0, 1.50 ERA (6 IP, 1 ER), 4 H, 0 BB, 3 K in 1 start, a 5-3 road loss May 3
- Career vs. Astros (regular season): 2-0, 1.59 ERA (22 2/3 IP, 4 ER), 0.97 WHIP in 4 starts
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Astros at Mariners odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 1:27 p.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Astros -105 (bet $105 to win $100) | Mariners -115 (bet $115 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Astros -1.5 (+165) | Mariners +1.5 (-200)
- Over/Under (O/U): 7 (O: -120 | U: +100)
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Astros at Mariners picks and predictions
Prediction
Mariners 4, Astros 3
Moneyline
The MARINERS (-115) have dominated the Astros this season. While Kirby has lost back-to-back starts on the road, he has been much better at T-Mobile Park this season (3-0 in last 3 home starts).
Verlander has allowed 12 hits over his last 2 starts (10 2/3 IP) and was somewhat lucky to only give up only 1 ER last time out in Oakland.
BET MARINERS (-115).
Run line/Against the spread
Seattle +1.5 (-200) should hit, but laying -200 in MLB is a losing proposition long term.
PASS. Bet the ML and/or total instead.
Over/Under
The Astros have scored 2 or fewer runs in 4 of their last 6 games, and Seattle has put up 4 or fewer in 5 of their last 6. Neither offense has been impressive lately, and with Kirby starting at home, I would learn toward the Under. However, 7 is a key number in MLB totals, and this line is a bit too low for me to commit.
LEAN UNDER 7 (+100).
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