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The Houston Astros (70-61) and Philadelphia Phillies (77-54) play the 2nd game of a 3-game series Tuesday. First pitch from Citizens Bank Park is set for 6:40 p.m. ET (TBS). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Astros vs. Phillies odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Phillies lead 1-0 after 3-2 win Monday with Under (8) hitting
Astros closer RP Josh Hader blew his 2nd save of the season Monday night. Houston got a 2-run double from 2B Shay Whitcomb in the 4th inning and were held scoreless from there. This was the Astros’ 5th loss in their last 7 games.
Philadelphia won in dramatic fashion Monday, as 1B Bryce Harper walked it off in the 10th inning with an RBI single. CF Brandon Marsh hit a solo shot in the 5th inning for the Phillies, who have won 3 straight.
Astros at Phillies projected starters
RHP Justin Verlander vs. RHP Aaron Nola
Verlander (3-3, 3.92 ERA) makes his 12th start. He has a 1.19 WHIP, 2.6 BB/9 and 8.3 K/9 in 62 IP.
- Last start: Loss, 5 IP, 2 ER, 4 H, 1 BB, 6 K in 4-1 home victory against Boston Red Sox Wednesday
- 2024 away splits: 3-1, 3.35 ERA (40 1/3 IP, 15 ER), 1.12 WHIP, 9.4 K/9 in 7 starts
- Career vs Phillies (regular season): 3-0, 1.42 ERA (19 IP, 3 ER), 0.79 WHIP, 12.3 K/9 in 3 starts — last start in 2022
Nola (11-6, 3.45 ERA) makes his 27th start. He has a 0.98 WHIP, 2.3 BB/9 and 8.3 K/9 in 159 1/3 IP.
- Last start: No-decision, 5 1/3 IP, 2 ER, 8 H, 2 BB, 5 K in 3-2 victory at Atlanta Braves Wednesday
- 2024 home splits: 5-3, 3.12 ERA (80 2/3 IP, 28 ER), 1.08 WHIP, 8.7 K/9 in 13 starts
- Career vs Astros (regular season): 3-0, 0.44 ERA (20 2/3 IP, 1 ER), 0.50 WHIP, 11.1 K/9 in 3 starts, including 1-0 with 1.13 ERA (8 IP, 1 ER) in 1 start last year
Who’s going yard? Here’s a breakdown of today’s best home run props with our top picks. Include the BetMGM bonus code SBWIRE to score a $1,500 first-bet offer.
Astros at Phillies odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:20 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Astros +120 (bet $100 to win $120) | Phillies -145 (bet $145 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread: Astros +1.5 (-185) | Phillies -1.5 (+150)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
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Astros at Phillies picks and predictions
Prediction
Phillies 4, Astros 2
Moneyline
PASS.
I’ll continue to ride the hot hand with the Phillies (-145), but I’d rather take the better odds on the run line.
Run line/Against the spread
BET PHILLIES -1.5 (+150).
The Phillies are 43-23 at Citizens Bank Park and have won 5 of their last 6 home games. Since the start of July, Nola is 1-0 and has allowed 3 ER over 18 1/3 IP (3 starts) at home. Philadelphia is also the 2nd-highest scoring team in MLB (5.31 runs per game) at home.
Verlander returned for his first start in over 2 months Wednesday and lost to the Red Sox. It doesn’t get any easier for him against one of the best offenses in MLB.
Over/Under
BET UNDER 8.5 (-110).
These teams love playing to the Under, especially lately. The Under has hit in their last 8 meetings. Verlander’s first start in his return from injury went Under. The Under has also hit in Nola’s last 2 starts.
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