The Houston Astros (9-10) visit the Atlanta Braves (14-5) Friday for the opener of a 3-game set at Truist Park. First pitch is scheduled for 7:20 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Astros vs. Braves odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: First meeting; Atlanta took 2 of 3 games in 2022
Houston is coming off a 3-3 homestand with games against the Texas Rangers and Toronto Blue Jays. The Astros’ offense in those 6 games was feast or famine. In order, their run outputs the last 6 games: 2-8-1-9-2-8.
The Braves won 8 in a row from April 10-18, Their streak came to an end with a 1-0 loss in on Wednesday in San Diego.
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Astros at Braves projected starters
RHP Hunter Brown vs. RHP Bryce Elder
Brown (2-0, 1.93 ERA) is tabbed for his 4th start. He has a 1.02 WHIP, 2.9 BB/9 and 8.2 K/9 in 18 2/3 IP.
- Threw 20 1/3 innings in his 2022 MLB debut season with an 0.89 ERA, 1.08 WHIP
- Has not allowed an earned run in his last 14 IP
Elder (2-0, 1.53 ERA) is making his 4th start. He has a 1.25 WHIP, 3.1 BB/9 and 8.7 K/9 in 17 2/3 IP.
- Clocked a 3.17 ERA, 1.24 WHIP as a rookie last season
- Owns a career 1.91 ERA at home in 28 1/3 IP
Astros at Braves odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 8:36 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline: Astros +100 (bet $100 to win $100) | Braves -120 (bet $100 to win $120)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Astros +1.5 (+155) | Braves -1.5 (-190)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)
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Astros at Braves picks and predictions
Prediction
Braves 4, Astros 3
Moneyline
No lean either way. Atlanta is playing good ball but has played an easy slate thus far. Brown’s stuff makes the Astros a worthy near-favorite. PASS.
Run line/Against the spread
The game will likely be a 1-run game, but there’s no value in picking the Braves at -190. PASS.
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Over/Under
The Under is 5-0 in the Astros’ last 5 games following an off day. Both teams were idle Thursday, and their relievers are well rested.
Both starters have some fade to their numbers, but they still figure as well above-average. Both offenses are swung around to their lesser splits when facing right-handers. And both offenses are a bit too far out over their skis with current production numbers.
Atlanta’s has been buoyed by a .355 batting average on balls in play in high-leverage situations; Houston ranks 9th in runs (5.05 per game) but 17th in the more predictive OPS.
The weather forecast — low humidity and an inward breeze — plays into this as well. BACK THE UNDER 8.5 (-105).
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