The Houston Astros (77-43) continue on the road to face the Atlanta Braves (73-47) Friday in the opener of a 3-game set at Truist Field. First pitch is set for 7:20 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Astros vs. Braves odds with MLB picks and predictions.
Season series: First matchup; Braves won series 4-2 in 2021
The Astros are coming off a split of a 4-game series at the Chicago White Sox. They put up 21 runs Thursday afternoon before they hit the road, and they have won 7 of 10. Houston is 1 of the best road teams at 38-25. The Astros will have their hands full with a hot Atlanta team, though.
The Braves are coming off a 3-2 win over RHP Jacob deGrom and the New York Mets. Atlanta has won 9 of 10 and 20 of 30. Their 40-23 mark is 1 of the best home records in baseball. They are doing it with pitching, too, as they have allowed 2 of fewer runs in 6 of the last 7 games.
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Astros at Braves projected starters
RHP Lance McCullers Jr. vs. RHP Kyle Wright
McCullers (1-0, 0.00 ERA) makes his 2nd start. He has a 1.00 WHIP, 6.0 BB/9 and 7.5 K/9 in 6 IP.
- Allowed 2 H and 4 BB while fanning 5 in 6 shutout innings in his first start of the season Saturday against Oakland after rehabbing a strained flexor tendon in his forearm
- Was 13-5 with a 3.16 ERA, 1.22 WHIP and a 10.3 K/9 in 28 starts last season
Wright (14-5, 3.14 ERA) makes his 23rd start. He has a 1.17 WHIP, 2.6 BB/9 and 8.6 K/9 in 134 2/3 IP.
- Last outing: Won 8-4 at Boston Aug. 10 with 6 IP, 1 ER, 6 H, 1 BB, 5 K
- Missed his last start because of pitching arm fatigue
- More effective at home: 9-2, 3.05 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 9.2 K/9 vs. 5-3, 3.27 ERA, 1.27 WHIP and 7.9 K/9 on road
Astros at Braves odds and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 1:07 p.m. ET.
- Money line (ML): Astros +105 (bet $100 to win $105) | Braves -130 (bet $130 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Astros +1.5 (-200) | Braves -1.5 (+160)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -102 | U: -122)
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Astros at Braves picks and predictions
Prediction
Astros 6, Braves 4
Money line
The Braves haven’t lost a home game Wright has started since May 26, but they probably haven’t faced a team like the mighty Astros that just plated 21 runs. The X-factor will be McCullers in his 2nd start against a Braves team that strikes out the 3rd-most per game. I like MCCULLERS OVER 5.5 STRIKEOUTS (-130) and ASTROS +105.
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Run line/Against the spread
Skip the run line because the Braves -1.5 (+160) is too risky and Astros +1.5 (-200) is too chalky. There’s a special boosted prop for 10+ runs to be scored in this game at +175. We’re projecting 10 runs here so you can go with that, but PASS on the run line.
Over/Under
We’re going with the Over here after Houston’s onslaught and because you don’t really know what you’re going to get from McCullers in his 2nd start. On the flip side, Wright has given up 2 ER or more in 5 of his last 6 starts, and he missed his last start due to arm fatigue. There is a 95% chance of rain, which compounds this take, but LEAN OVER 8.5 (-102).
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