The Hawaii Rainbow Warriors (9-4, 5-3 Mountain West – West Division) and Boise State Broncos (11-1, 8-0 MWC – Mountain) play Saturday afternoon in the Mountain West conference championship game at Albertsons Stadium in Boise, Idaho. Kickoff is scheduled for 4 p.m. ET. We analyze the Hawaii-Boise State odds and betting lines while providing college football betting tips and advice on this matchup.
Hawaii at Boise State: Three things you need to know
1. Hawaii and Boise State played a high-scoring game on Oct. 12, with the Broncos winning 59-37 behind 203 yards rushing. Add in the five passing touchdowns from three different Boise State quarterbacks and Hawaii simply could not keep up offensively.
2. Hawaii closed out the season with four straight wins, including a 52-31 win over Army in the regular-season finale. Cole McDonald passed for 250 yards and three touchdowns in the win while the Rainbow Warriors racked up 133 yards on just 19 carries (seven yards per rush).
3. This “could” be a lower-scoring game than most expect by MWC standards. One concern from last week was that Hawaii allowed 411 yards on the ground to the Black Knights and, considering what Boise State did in the last meeting, the Broncos could effectively control the clock better.
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Hawaii at Boise State: Odds, betting lines and picks
Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Thursday at 5:30 p.m. ET.
Prediction
Boise State 38, Hawaii 20
Moneyline (ML)
Boise State is a chalky -500 while Hawaii is +375 on Saturday.
Hawaii must find ways to make the stops against Boise State that it could not do in October. Managing the clock a bit better would help with the Rainbow Warriors’ short passing and running games. The problem is Boise State is far more balanced with plenty of rushing and receiving weapons.
The final difference is the defense. Boise State is ranked 27th in points per game allowed at 21.5 and 37th in yards per play allowed at 5.2. Take BOISE STATE, even with the meager $2 profit on a $10 bet.
Against the Spread (ATS)
Boise State is 6-5-1 ATS but 4-2 at home. Meanwhile, Hawaii is 3-2 ATS away and is nine points per game above the cover. However, this spread is unexpectedly more manageable at 13.5 and Boise State has covered this once before versus Hawaii — winning by 22 points.
Back the BRONCOS (-13.5, -115). A $10 bet results in an $8.70 profit if Boise State wins by 14 or more points.
Over/Under (O/U)
The projected total is 64.5. This time the UNDER (-106) is the pick for this game. Boise State can control just enough time of possession in the colder weather to make this a hit in a close one.
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