The Gators likely knocked themselves out of contention for both a College Football Playoff spot and the SEC East division crown with a loss to Kentucky on Saturday, and one would think that the analytics would be none-too-pleased with Florida’s sloppy, 15-penalty performance.
But it seems the contrary is true. UF only fell one spot in the latest SP+ rankings from ESPN’s Bill Connelly from No. 4 to No. 5. Per the rankings, Florida still has the No. 5 offense in the country and the No. 16 defense. Even its special teams, which allowed the decisive touchdown for the Wildcats on a blocked kick returned for a touchdown, is just a middling group, ranking 62nd,
The reason for this likely has a lot to do with the way SP+ evaluates teams. To quote Connelly, “SP+ is intended to be predictive and forward-facing. It is not a résumé ranking that gives credit for big wins or particularly brave scheduling — no good predictive system is. It is simply a measure of the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football. If you’re lucky or unimpressive in a win, your rating will probably fall. If you’re strong and unlucky in a loss, it will probably rise.”
Essentially, SP+ is nothing more than a pure measure of efficiency. It doesn’t take outcome into account, and in a game where the Gators nearly doubled up UK in yardage, allowed a special teams touchdown and was penalized 15 times, it’s easier to see why the SP+ didn’t judge the team as harshly.
But unlike with the SP+, outcome matters in real life. Florida lost to Kentucky on Saturday, and with that loss went most of the team’s postseason aspirations. The ceiling is likely a fourth-straight New Year’s Six appearance, and with remaining games at LSU and against Georgia in Jacksonville, even getting there doesn’t feel like a guarantee right now.
Still, it’s clear the SP+ views the Kentucky loss as a bit of a fluke, and that should at least bode well for UF’s chances of finishing the rest of the season on a strong note, even if there isn’t much to play for at this point.