The Florida Gators (6-5) travel to Tallahassee to battle the in-state rival No. 16 Florida State Seminoles (8-3) Friday at 7:30 p.m. ET (ABC). Below, we analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Florida vs. Florida State odds, and make our expert college football picks and predictions.
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Despite Anthony Richardson throwing for 400 yards Saturday, Florida was beaten 31-24 as 14-point favorites by the Vanderbilt Commodores. It was the 2nd time Richardson passed for more than 400 yards and the Gators lost (453 yards and 2 TD in the 38-33 loss to Tennessee on Sept. 24).
Florida State beat UL-Lafayette 49-17 on Saturday, covering the 22.5-point spread. The Seminoles ran for 251 yards. Against a Florida defense which is susceptible to the run, the Seminoles and QB Jordan Travis will look to replicate these numbers.
Although Travis was only 9 of 14 passing against UL-Lafayette for 112 yards and 1 TD, his true value is as a runner where he ran 5 times for 38 yards and 2 TDs. This will be a fun matchup of 2 elite running QBs. The winner will be the defense that can stop the other team’s QB more often.
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Florida at Florida State odds
Provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Tuesday at 8:07 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Florida +290 (bet $100 to win $290) | Florida State -370 (bet $370 to win $100)
- Against the spread (ATS): Florida +9.5 (-108) | Florida State -9.5 (-112)
- Over/Under (O/U): 58 (O: -109 | U: -111)
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Florida at Florida State picks and predictions
Prediction
Florida State 41, Florida 27
Moneyline
PASS. Unless you think Florida can win there’s nothiing to look at here.
Against the spread
FLORIDA STATE -9.5 (-112).
Florida is on the right path for the future. Coach Billy Napier is bringing in the recruits Dan Mullen wouldn’t and 2023 will be a better year for the Gators. But Florida State has started its ascension this season under Travis and coach Mike Norville. After a Week 1 victory over LSU, the Seminoles has stayed hot for most of the season, and they will look to finish off strong.
Florida does not have the defense to hold up against FSU’s run game and it will show during this matchup. Florida State -9.5 (-112) is the way to go here, and this is my favorite play.
Over/Under
OVER 58 (-109).
Florida State might have to do much of the heavy lifting to get this game over, but I think it will.
After giving up 31 to Vanderbilt on Saturday, Florida and its mediocre defense will have nothing to control the run game of the Seminoles. While Florida State has a solid defense, Richardson will be able to once again use his arm and legs to get scores in this matchup.
Florida is not likely to make this interesting or close, but they will score enough, even if it is in garbage time, to take this game Over the total of 58 (-109).
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