We’re at it again. We keep following the updated odds for Ohio State and other contenders to make the College Football Playoff, and we’re following the lead of the popular analytics website FiveThirtyEight on the whole deal.
Each week — in fact twice a week — the fine folks at FiveThirtyEight update their College Football Playoff Predictor based on a formula derived from historical rankings of the CFP Committee. In fact, from the website itself:
“Our model uses the College Football Playoff selection committee’s past behavior and an Elo rating-based system to anticipate how the committee will rank teams and ultimately choose playoff contestants, accounting for factors that include record, strength of schedule, conference championships won and head-to-head results. It also uses ESPN’s Football Power Index and the committee’s rankings to forecast teams’ chances of winning. (Before Nov. 2, when the CFP will release its first rankings, the Associated Press Top 25 poll is used instead.) The teams included above either have at least a 0.5 percent chance of making the playoff or are in the top 25 in at least one of the three rankings we use in our model: FPI, the Elo-based rating or CFP/AP. Every forecast update is based on 10,000 simulations of the remaining season. Full methodology »”
That’s all a fancy way of saying developer Jay Boice and statistic modeler Nate Silver are a lot smarter than you and I.
We last checked in on the model after the second release of the CFP Rankings last Tuesday, and we’re taking a look again after this past weekend’s games. Here’s a new look at how the FiveThirtyEight College Football Playoff Prediction model looks on the eve of another unveiling of the updated CFP Rankings.