When a new quarterback comes into the league, especially when its with a team that has legitimate Super Bowl aspirations, the projections of NFL greatness go off the charts. When the San Francisco 49ers made a huge investment to move up to the No. 3 pick in the 2021 draft to select North Dakota State quarterback Trey Lance, those alarms went off that the Niners had a gem who is going to be the franchise quarterback for the next decade.
Below, we look at Trey Lance‘s 2022 fantasy football average draft position (ADP) and where you should draft him.
When Lance was slow to pick up the playbook early as a rookie, veteran quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo never lost his starting job. While Lance played in 6 games as a rookie, just 2 of them were starts. Heading into 2022, while Garoppolo is still on the roster — trade rumors have been just that in recent months — Lance is being anointed as the starter and there is a lot of fantasy buzz around him.
Trey Lance’s ADP: 89.69
(ADP data courtesy of MyFantasyLeague.com; last updated at time of this publishing – ADPs continually change as more drafts occur)
Lance’s current ADP has him as the 12th-ranked fantasy quarterback and there is a clear line between Lance and the 2 quarterbacks in front of him — Dak Prescott (Dallas Cowboys) at 73.78 and Aaron Rodgers (Green Bay Packers) at 75.45. Immediately after Lance, QBs start coming off boards quickly, starting with Matthew Stafford (Los Angeles Rams) at 91.52 and Derek Carr (Las Vegas Raiders) at 92.94.
The difference between Lance and those other quarterbacks — especially the 2 behind him in the rankings — is the expectation that Lance will be able to do a lot more damage as a rusher than either of the other 2.
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Trey Lance’s 2021 stats
Games: 6
Passing yards: 603
Completions | attempts: 71 | 41
Passing touchdowns: 5
Interceptions: 2
Carries | rushing yards: 38 | 168
Rushing touchdowns: 1
Where should you draft Lance?
Lance is in an ideal situation. Typically when a quarterback is drafted as high as Lance was, it’s because the team was garbage the year before and needed to make a change in the direction of the franchise. Any 1st-round QB is immediately viewed as the face of the future of a franchise and, after 1 year of learning and sitting, Lance is getting his chance to prove the 49ers War Room right that he was worth the investment made in him.
My biggest problem with this ranking is that the 49ers are a run-1st, run-2nd offense, which requires the quarterback to do a lot of his fantasy scoring with his legs. Very few quarterbacks consistently pile up enough fantasy points running the ball to make up for what those QBs who consistently throw for 250 or more yards and 2-3 TDs on a regular basis are capable of doing.
While I love the idea of Lance in a dynasty league where you can carry over players for a year or more, as to the 2022 season, I don’t see Lance putting up the kind of numbers that would be consistently better than Stafford, Carr or even Kirk Cousins (Minnesota Vikings) on a week-to-week basis.
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