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The Houston Texas selected QB C.J. Stroud with the 2nd overall pick in the 2023 NFL Draft after the Carolina Panthers hitched their wagon to QB Bryce Young at No. 1.
It has been baby steps for Stroud during training camp and the preseason, as the $36 million man settles into his new home. QB Davis Mills and veteran QB Case Keenum are the fallback options, just in case, but it appears it’s all systems go for the former Ohio State standout.
Our last impression of Stroud in the college game was a good one, as he threw for 348 yards and 4 TDs in the CFP semifinal against eventual national champ Georgia in the Peach Bowl. Stroud was poised, electric and he showed tremendous leadership, nearly helping the Buckeyes pull off the upset. The Texans hope he can carry over the momentum to his pro career, although there figure to be bumps along the way.
As far as fantasy appeal is concerned, it’s usually not a great idea to rely too heavily upon rookies, especially those at the quarterback position.
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C.J. Stroud’s ADP: 91.30
(ADP data courtesy of MyFantasyLeague.com; last updated at time of this publishing – ADPs continually change as more drafts occur)
In redraft fantasy leagues, Stroud has been going off the board right around the 90th overall pick, which puts him in the middle of the pack as a QB2. While he has some upside, as stated above, you certainly would not want Stroud, or any rookie, for that matter, as your top overall option at QB.
Early on, Stroud will be looking to build rapport with WRs Nico Collins, John Metchie III and veteran Robert Woods, who figure to be the team’s top 3 downfield targets. He’ll also have TE Dalton Schultz as a reliable safety valve, as well as sophomore RB Dameon Pierce and newcomer RB Devin Singletary to handle passes out of the backfield.
The cupboard is anything but bare at the skill positions in H-Town, and in the weak AFC South, it wouldn’t be shocking to see Stroud and the Texans make a move upward sooner rather than later.
Among quarterbacks, Stroud’s ADP in redraft leagues is 17th, just behind the Seattle Seahawks’ Geno Smith (85.42), fellow rookie Will Levis of the Tennessee Titans (87.10) and the New York Jets QB Aaron Rodgers (89.65).
Ironically, Stroud’s ADP puts him just ahead of Panthers rookie Bryce Young (92.60), the New York Giants QB Daniel Jones (94.73) and the Detroit Lions rookie Hendon Hooker (95.24).
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C.J. Stroud’s 2022 stats (Ohio State)
Games: 13
Passing yards: 3,688
Completions | attempts: 258 | 389
Passing touchdowns: 41
Interceptions: 6
Carries | rushing yards: 47 | 108
Rushing touchdowns: 0
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Where should you draft Stroud?
The area of the draft where you need to target Stroud greatly differs depending upon the fantasy format.
In standard redraft leagues, Stroud shouldn’t be touched until Round 10 or later, and that’s if you even want/need a 2nd QB on your roster. Most fantasy managers draft a high-profile starting signal caller, and roll with him, rather than wasting a roster spot on a guy who will rarely, if ever, be placed into the starting lineup. You can always add a streamer when your primary starter’s bye week comes up, and that’s when Stroud is likely to be in an active lineup.
Stroud will be much more attractive in long-term keeper formats, or dynasty leagues. He will likely be right outside of the overall Top 100 players in the NFL in those leagues, and taking Stroud in Round 8 or later isn’t a bad idea. And in rookie-only fantasy draft, Stroud is seeing an ADP of 13.39, just behind Richardson (5.36) and Young (10.17). Those are the 3 rookie QBs who occupy the most roster spots in those particular formats.
Most people are likely concerned with redraft leagues, however, and as such, Stroud shouldn’t be picked until at least Round 10, and only as your 2nd QB, if you have the roster/bench flexibility. If you were to draft a starting QB who has a double-digit bye week, you likely won’t use Stroud until the leaves have already fallen off the trees, if at all. It might not be a bad idea to let him go undrafted, in that case.
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