Fantasy Football Targets, Touches and TDs: Week 15

A deep dive into the wide receiver position as we near the end of 2020.

Wide receiver has been fantasy’s unquestioned deepest position for several years running now.

As a result, leagues with three starting wide receiver slots have become increasingly common, and the weekly lineup decisions surrounding those starters often are among the toughest to make with fantasy general managers regularly choosing from a pool of similarly productive and intriguing WR options.

So what separates one talented wideout from another or one WR2 from the next?

This week’s TT&T will attempt to answer some of those questions by taking a look at deeper and lesser-known wide receiver statistical metrics and see what light they can shed on actual efficiency and true productiveness at the position this season.

In the process, some underrated and overrated wideouts are sure to emerge along with some hidden gems, and that should help in regards to some of those tough weekly WR lineup decisions.

Team target share

(source: Lineups.com)

Top 10

  1. DeAndre Hopkins, Cardinals 25.2 percent
  2. Stefon Diggs, Bills 25.1
  3. Keenan Allen, Chargers 25.0
  4. Davante Adams, Packers 24.8
  5. Marquise Brown, Ravens 24.2
  6. Terry McLaurin, Washington 23.1
  7. Jarvis Landry, Browns 22.7
  8. Robby Anderson, Panthers 22.7
  9. Allen Robinson, Bears 22.3
  10. Tyreek Hill, Chiefs 21.9

Notable

  • Brown (36th among wide receivers with 80 total targets ) and Landry (27th with 87) are the only wideouts ranked in the above top 10 who are not among the top 25 at the position in total targets. They also are the only ones in the above group averaging fewer than 8.5 targets per game with Landry averaging 6.7 and Brown averaging 6.2.
  • Aside from the just-mentioned Landry and Brown, Anderson (18th among WRs with 15.1 point-per-reception fantasy points per game) and McLaurin (19th with 14.9) rank the lowest among this group in fantasy production, and most of it is due to their combined five touchdowns. The other six (Hopkins, Diggs, Adams, Allen, Robinson and Hill) have 53 TD receptions between them with none with fewer than five.
  • 49ers rookie Brandon Aiyuk (17th with 15.8 fantasy points per game) has missed three full games due to injury and consequently owns the lowest team target share (13.9) of any current top-20 fantasy wideout. However, he’s drawn at least 23 percent of San Fran’s targets in each of his last five games with a minimum of seven targets in each outing.

Air yards before catch per reception

(min. 35 receptions, ProFootballReference.com)

Top 10

  1. Nelson Agholor, Raiders 13.0
  2. Calvin Ridley, Falcons 12.8
  3. Mike Williams, Chargers 12.5
  4. D.K. Metcalf, Seahawks 12.5
  5. D.J. Moore, Panthers 12.5
  6. Darius Slayton, Giants 12.0
  7. Jerry Jeudy, Broncos 11.9
  8. Justin Jefferson, Vikings 11.5
  9. Will Fuller, Texans 11.1
  10. Tim Patrick, Broncos 10.9

Notable

  • This is not only a good indicator of which wide receivers are getting targeted with the coveted/more fantasy-lucrative deeper passes, but how many of these deeper passes are actually being caught. The Bucs’ Scotty Miller (13.6 yards on 28 catches), the Packers’ Marquez Valdes-Scantling (13.2 on 31) and the Bills’ emerging Gabriel Davis (12.4 on 28) are among those who just fell short of the minimum-catch threshold.
  • Agholor popped again Sunday with five catches for 100 yards and a TD on nine targets in the Raiders’ 44-27 loss to the Colts, but even with that, he’s only averaging 11.1 fantasy points per game and has had more than twice as many sub-top-40 finishes (seven) than top-25 finishes (three) on the season — a true boom-or-best receiver with a few too many busts to be started with any confidence.
  • It’s not too surprising to find a pair of Broncos on this list, considering QB Drew Lock leads the league with an average of 9.1 intended air yards per passing attempt, but hopefully most fantasy GMs have realized by now that Patrick is by far the team’s best WR3/flex option as his 64.2 catch percentage is far superior to Jeudy’s 46.5. Patrick has a team-most six TD receptions while Jeudy and the rest of the team’s wideouts have combined for seven.

Yards after catch/reception

(min. 30 receptions, NFL Next Gen Stats)

Top 10

  1. Deebo Samuel, 49ers 12.3
  2. Mecole Hardman, Chiefs 7.6
  3. Danny Amendola, Lions 7.2
  4. Michael Pittman Jr., Colts 7.1
  5. A.J. Brown, Titans 7.1
  6. Hunter Renfrow, Raiders 6.7
  7. Valdes-Scantling, Packers 6.6
  8. McLaurin, Washington 6.5
  9. Moore, Panthers 6.4
  10. Robert Woods, Rams 6.2

Notable

  • Samuel, who could miss the rest the season due to Sunday’s opening-play hamstring injury, is averaging nearly five more yards after the catch than any other qualifying wideout. Samuel also has a negative-7 total air yards on his 33 receptions, meaning he has more yards after the catch (398) than he does total receiving yards (391) on the season. That’s truly a rarity for a wide receiver, but Samuel seems to be paying a price health-wise for his physical style as he’s played in only seven of 13 contests this season.
  • The rookie Pittman has drawn physical comparisons to his AFC South counterpart in Brown, so it’s wholly fitting that their YAC averages are near identical. Pittman, though, is averaging 2.4 fewer targets and 1.3 fewer receptions per game and has had five or fewer targets in three of his last four contests after a bright but brief midseason surge.
  • Woods and fellow Rams WR Cooper Kupp, rank fourth and second among wideouts with YAC totals of 463 and 473, respectively. That obviously beefs up their own fantasy numbers as well as QB Jared Goff, who ranks third at the position with an average of 6.0 YAC per completion. Only Aaron Rodgers and the Niners’ Nick Mullens, at 6.2 apiece, average more, and only Patrick Mahomes (1,965) has benefited from more total YAC than Goff’s 1,945 to date on the season.

Team red-zone TD share

(min. 10 red zone targets, Lineups.com)

Top 10

  1. Adam Thielen, Vikings 58.0
  2. Ridley, Falcons 55.0
  3. Allen, Chargers 44.0
  4. N’Keal Harry, Patriots 40.0
  5. Mike Evans, Bucs 38.0
  6. Adams, Packers 36.0
  7. Aiyuk, 49ers 27.0
  8. JuJu Smith-Schuster, Steelers 26.0
  9. Hill, Chiefs 26.0
  10. Amari Cooper, Cowboys, 25.0

Notable

  • Thielen ranks eighth at the position with an average of 17.5 fantasy points per outing, and he owes it much to his top-of-the charts red-zone efficiency. A league-high 11 of his 12 total scoring grabs have come in the red zone, and he’s done it on 16 targets (fourth) and 14 receptions (third) inside the 20.
  • Ridley and Allen are the only other wideouts to have snared more than 40 percent of their teams’ red zone TD tosses with rounded-up percentages of 55 and 44, respectively. It’s particularly notable that Ridley has been on the receiving end of six of the Falcons’ 11 TD throws. WRs Russell Gage and Brandon Powell have two apiece and tight end Hayden Hurst has the other, leaving Julio Jones with a shocking zero on eight inside-the-20 targets and four receptions.
  • On the flip side, the Panthers’ Anderson, Washington’s McLaurin, the Bears’ Anthony Miller and the Saints’ Michael Thomas are the only wide receivers with 10 or more targets inside the red zone and no receiving TDs. All have exactly 10 inside-the-20 targets apiece with 17 combined receptions. Bengals TE Drew Sample (10 scoreless red-zone targets) is the only other pass-catcher without a TD on double-digit red zone targets.

Drop percentage

(min. 35 targets, ProFootballReference.com)

Top 10

  1. Hardman, Chiefs 13.3
  2. KJ Hamler, Broncos 11.5
  3. Valdes-Scantling, Packers 10.2
  4. Diontae Johnson, Steelers 8.8
  5. Moore, Panthers 7.9
  6. Kendrick Bourne, 49ers 7.9
  7. Thielen, Vikings 7.7
  8. Tyler Lockett, Seahawks 7.5
  9. Gage, Falcons 7.1
  10. Michael Gallup, Cowboys 7.1

Notable

  • Johnson has been poster player for drops with a league-high 10 on 113 targets. His unreliable hands have been especially glaring of late, and he even earned a seat on the bench for much of Sunday night’s loss in Buffalo after a pair of glaring early-game drops. Johnson is certainly not alone on the Steelers as QB Ben Roethlisberger has been victimized by a league-most 33 dropped passes and only the Cowboys’ Andy Dalton, at 7.0 percent, has had a higher percentage of his passes dropped than Big Ben’s 6.4.
  • It’s a bit shocking to see Thielen and Lockett on this list considering the former’s sure-handed reputations and the latter’s sheer volume (106 targets) and penchant for reeling in low-percentage passes, but they have had seven and eight drops on the season, respectively. Of course, Thielen and Lockett really don’t have to worry about much of a decrease in targets if the dropped opportunities continue, but players like the just-mentioned second-year Johnson are in danger of seeing their looks and snaps take a dip if the frustrating miscues persist.
  • On the flip side, the Browns’ Rashard Higgins, the Texans’ Randall Cobb, the Broncos’ Patrick, the Bucs’ Antonio Brown and Bears rookie Darnell Mooney are the only wide receivers without a drop and at least 34 targets, according to ProFootballReference.com data.