We are three weeks into NFL 2020, and the fantasy football picture is starting to gain some clarity as to the players we can trust in our fantasy football lineups and those we can’t on a weekly basis.
It’s certainly been an odd but interesting season for fantasy wide receivers so far with a number of key wideouts missing time due to injuries. That list includes the likes of Michael Thomas, Julio Jones, Kenny Golladay, Davante Adams, Courtland Sutton, Chris Godwin, A.J. Brown, D.J. Chark, John Brown, Jamison Crowder, Breshard Perriman, Deebo Samuel, Sterling Shepard and Diontae Johnson.
Usually, that kind of health uncertainty is normally more reserved for running backs, but if 2020 has taught us anything so far, it’s anything but a normal year.
In the meantime, a number of wide receivers – Calvin Ridley, D.K. Metcalf, Terry McLaurin, JuJu Smith-Schuster and Allen Lazard, among others – have stepped up in their place to grab an early high spot on the fantasy wideout leaderboard.
That established, it’s time to take a positional snapshot by breaking down the basic fantasy wide receiver stats and pegging what’s sustainable and what’s not. As usual, all stats are through play Sunday in Week 3.
Total targets leaders (top 15)
Keenan Allen 37, DeAndre Hopkins 37, Amari Cooper 35, Ridley 35, Allen Robinson 31, Tyler Lockett 29, Stefon Diggs 28, A.J. Green 28, Tyler Boyd 26, D.J. Moore 26, McLaurin 25, D. Johnson 25, Robby Anderson 24, Julian Edelman 24, Russell Gage Jr. 24, Jerry Jeudy 24
Surprise inclusion: Anderson, Panthers. The speedy wideout, more renowned as a deep threat, has been targeted at least six times in every contest and is on pace for a career-high 128.
In his four previous seasons with the Jets, Anderson only reached 100 targets once and that was with on a 5-11 team where his chief competition for targets were with the likes of Jermaine Kearse, Jeremy Kerley, tight end Austin Sefarian-Jenkins and aging running back Matt Forte.
Surprise omission: Adam Thielen, Vikings. He does fall just outside the above list, tied for 21st with 21 targets, but much more was expected out of Thielen with Diggs, his long-time wide receiver 1A cohort, traded to the Buffalo Bills this season.
Thielen is on pace for 112 targets, which would fall well below his last two previous full-season totals of 142 and 153.
Surprise omission II: T.Y. Hilton, Colts. He’s only attracted 17 targets so far (tied for 39th overall), and is on pace for a measly 57. His previous low in a season in which he’s played at least 14 games is 90 in his rookie campaign of 2012.
Hilton’s new QB, of course, is check-down master Philip Rivers, but perhaps the receiver’s low target total is more a game-flow situation with Hilton only getting eight targets the last two weeks in games in which they’ve been comfortably ahead throughout. In Week 1’s 27-20 loss to the Jaguars, Hilton had nine targets.
Projected end-of-season top five: Hopkins, Allen, Robinson, Ridley, Adams
Receptions leaders (top 15)
Hopkins 32, Cooper 25, Allen 24, Lockett 24, Ridley 21, Boyd 21, Diggs 20, Anderson 20, Cooper Kupp 18, Robinson 18, Adams 17, Gage 17, Smith-Schuster 17, CeeDee Lamb 16, McLaurin 16
Surprise inclusion: Gage, Falcons. Atlanta has been one of the NFL’s pass-heaviest teams so far with 129 attempts and 90 completions in four games, but the Falcons’ second-leading pass-catcher after three games figured to be Jones, new tight end Hayden Hurst or even RB Todd Gurley. Gage, however has six more receptions than any other Atlanta player aside from Ridley’s 21, and that’s with the wide receiver departing in the first half of Sunday’s game against the Bears with a concussion.
Gage quietly finished his second season a year ago with 49 catches for 449 yards and one TD so perhaps we all should’ve been paying more attention.
Surprise omission: Green is tied for seventh in targets (28) but is way down at 26th in receptions with 13, making for a less-than-optimal 46.4 catch percentage. Those 13 catches also have only gone for 116 yards (8.9 per reception) as the 32-year-old Green has showed rust from his missed season of 2019 and hasn’t been on the same page with rookie QB Joe Burrow so far.
Projected end-of-season top five: Hopkins, Adams, Lockett, Allen, Thomas
Receiving yards leaders (top 15)
Hopkins 356, Ridley 349, Metcalf 297, Diggs 288, Anderson 278, McLaurin 269, Cooper 267, Allen 265, Edelman 259, Lockett 259, Lazard 254, Michael Gallup 246, Justin Jefferson 245, D.J. Moore 239, Boyd 230, Lamb 230, Robinson 230
Surprise inclusion: Edelman, Patriots. It’s no surprise that Edelman is leading the Pats in targets (24) and receptions (15) so far – even with new QB Cam Newton – but his average of 17.3 yards per reception is eye-popping after he entered the season with a career average of 10.9.
However, it largely has been the product of one game – Edelman’s career-best 179 yards on eight catches in a Week 2 shootout in Seattle – so expect his yard-per-reception average regress closer to the mean as the season progresses.
Surprise omission: Mike Evans, Buccaneers. Evans, who has also had health issues this season, ranks ninth with 34.8 fantasy points (standard scoring), thanks largely to four touchdowns, but those four scoring grabs have covered a total of 27 yards as he’s had a 2-yard and two 1-yard TD receptions.
Overall, Evans ranks 61st among wideouts with 108 yards on 10 catches. For reference, Evans entered the season with a career average of 15.7 yards per reception. Perhaps, though, this is simply a function of the new Tom Brady-led offense with shorter passes and fewer receiving yards but more efficiency.
Projected end-of-season top five: Ridley, Hopkins, Diggs, Metcalf, McLaurin
Receiving touchdowns leaders (top 15)
Evans 4, Lockett 4, Ridley 4, Metcalf 3, Smith-Schuster 3, Thielen 3, Adams 2, Braxton Berrios 2, Brown 2, Keelan Cole 2, Diggs 2, Tee Higgins 2, Tyreek Hill 2, Dontrelle Inman 2, Andy Isabella 2, Lazard 2, Anthony Miller 2, Emmanuel Sanders 2, Darius Slayton 2, Cedrick Wilson 2
Surprise inclusion: Wilson, Cowboys. The second-year player out of Boise State reeled in 5-of-7 targets for 107 yards and two scores in Sunday’s (most recent) shootout in Seattle for his first career TDs.
That gives Wilson double the combined TDs of the Cowboys’ top three wideouts (Cooper, Gallup and Lamb) on the season despite 68 fewer targets.
Surprise omission: Cooper, Cowboys. He entered the season with 14 scoring grabs in 25 games with Dallas since coming over in a trade midway through the 2018 season, but he’s only garnered one of the team’s 11 red-zone targets so far and came out of Sunday with the highest target total (35) in the league without a scoring catch.
And that’s also playing on a team which the most passing attempts (145) and completions (96) in the league so far.
Projected end-of-season top five: Lockett, Adams, Ridley, Thielen, Metcalf
Fantasy Football Extra Points
- With a pair of TDs in each of his three contests so far, Saints RB Alvin Kamara already has matched his touchdown total (six) from his injury-addled 2019 season – and he’s done so on 194 fewer touches. Kamara combined for 31 total TDs in his first two seasons (2017-18) and a career-high 20-TD season appears well within reach at this point, barring another health issue.
- Kamara only has four fewer receptions (27) than rushing attempts (31) so far, and he trails only Hopkins (32) in total catches. He has eight more targets and 11 more receptions than any other league running back and his 284 yards after the catch are a whopping 110 more than any other pass-catcher in the league. Kamara is the early front-runner to be the Christian McCaffrey of 2020.
- Speaking of McCaffrey, his injury absence has opened the door for backup Mike Davis who has totaled 16 receptions (trailing only Kamara among RBs for the season) on 17 targets while also carrying the ball 14 times since taking over late in Week 2. Davis scored a pair of TDs on 21 touches Sunday in 21-16 road upset of the Chargers.
- Over the last two weeks, Darrell Henderson appears to have taken hold of the Rams’ starting running back gig, rushing for 195 yards and a pair of TDs on 32 carries and bringing in three of six targets for 46 yards for a total of 39.1 fantasy points (point-per-reception scoring). Battling injuries, fellow L.A. backs Malcolm Brown and Cam Akers have combined for 79 total yards on 21 touches over the two games for 7.9 PPR points.
- There are some scary stats for those mining for a fantasy running back option in the Giants’ backfield post-Saquon Barkley. Through three weeks, the Giants not only have totaled the fewest rushing attempts (53) and lowest rushing-play percentage (30.3) in the league but they also own the fewest rushing yards (170) and lowest yard-per-attempt (3.21) average as well. In Sunday’s first game without Barkley, New York rushed for 66 yards on 15 attempts in a 36-9 thumping by the 49ers, but 49 of those yards came on five scrambles by quarterback Daniel Jones, leaving a combined 17 yards on 10 rushes for Devonta Freeman (5-10), Wayne Gallman (4-7) and Dion Lewis (1-0).
- According to ProFootballReference.com’s advanced receiving stats, Metcalf leads all qualifying players with an average of 19.7 air yards per reception, followed by Gallup (18.2), Miller (17.2), Isabella (16.3) and the Panthers’ D.J. Moore (15.8).
- Even with fellow Jack Doyle back and playing 53 percent of the Colts’ offensive snaps, Mo Alie-Cox played 60 percent of the snaps and was the only Indy tight end to catch a pass Sunday, bringing in all three of his targets for 50 yards and a TD. Certainly a player in a tight end-friendly offense to keep in mind.