Every week, at least one player becomes my fascination of whether he’s worthy of a fantasy football start or bench The decision can be a mental wrestling match, but for the purpose of brevity, only one player can be chosen as the fantasy football gamble of the week.
The best fantasy football gamble for Week 4
Tracking my predictions: 1-1-1
Win: Player produces ≥ 80% of projected fantasy points
Loss: Player produces >80% of projected fantasy points
Tie: Player is ejected or leaves with an injury
Green Bay Packers TE Robert Tonyan vs. Atlanta Falcons
In Week 3’s release, I couldn’t have been more wrong with the player himself (Cincinnati Bengals TE Drew Sample, who saw one target). However, I take some comfort in knowing Cincy wide receiver Tee Higgins caught two short touchdowns, which is what I had forecasted for Sample. I absolutely made the wrong call, but I was on the right trail, and I can live with it.
Tonyan entered the 2020 season with two career touchdowns in as many years in the league and has scored in consecutive games. He leapfrogged TE Jace Sternberger in training camp after a trip to the COVID-19 reserve list set back Sternberger several weeks. Upon his return, the second-year tight end was so far behind he didn’t have a chance.
Despite only eight total targets in the last two games, Tonyan has made the most of his limited work. He found the end zone in Week 2 vs. the Detroit Lions, registering 25 yards on his two grabs. Last Sunday night, playing at the New Orleans Saints, Tonyan saw his targets go from three to five, all of which were corralled. Those five receptions went for 50 yards and another score, giving him back-to-back weeks of at least 10.5 PPR points.
The uptick in work coincided with the loss of Davante Adams (hamstring), who was inactive in Week 3 after exiting early the prior game. The Packers go on bye in Week 5, and it stands to reason they won’t rush Adams back to risk further injuring him. Even if Adams plays, it means more defensive attention away from Tonyan but, admittedly, fewer possible targets.
The Packers host the Falcons on Monday Night Football. Only the Saints have surrendered more fantasy points (in both primary systems) to the position so far in 2020, and the production against Atlanta has come in all forms. In Week 1, Greg Olsen scored on a short pass in the red zone and finished with 12.4 points in PPR. The next week, Dallas’ Dalton Schultz filled in for injured starter Blake Jarwin and had himself a day, going for 88 yards and a score on nine receptions. Last week, the Chicago Bears’ Jimmy Graham saw 10 targets, snaring six for 60 yards and a pair of scores, turning back time along the way.
The Falcons play what’s known as a “big nickel” base defense, in which the slot corner is really safety with athletic cover traits, hence the “big” term. That typically means only two linebackers (4-2-5, sometimes 3-3-5) are on the field, and it opens up potential room for intermediate work, especially shallow crosses and sit-down routes against soft zones.
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The alignment actually works well vs. tight ends when the nickel safety is on his game, but that obviously hasn’t been the case so far in Atlanta. The defense tends to work best when a team flexes an athletic tight end into the slot, like how Travis Kelce or Rob Gronkowski are often utilized. Tonyan is predominantly a traditional “Y,” meaning he plays inline. In his case, two-thirds of his 2020 snaps have come with his hand in the dirt. Another factor that works in Green Bay’s favor is Aaron Rodgers’ intelligence. His ability to diagnose presnap and audible into the best play for the situation is an intangible that cannot be ignored.
In a week with uncertainty surrounding George Kittle (knee), and the loss of options Jonnu Smith and Eric Ebron, due to the COVID-19 postponement of their game, gamers must become less fearful in chancing it on a mostly unknown player.
My projection: 4 receptions, 42 yards, 1 TD (14.2 PPR points)