Every week, at least one player becomes my fascination of whether he’s worthy of a fantasy football start or bench. The decision can be a mental wrestling match, but for the purpose of brevity, only one player can be chosen as the fantasy football gamble of the week.
The best fantasy football gamble for Week 15
Tracking my predictions: 4-9-1
Win: Player produces ≥ 80% of projected fantasy points
Loss: Player produces >80% of projected fantasy points
Tie: Player is ejected or leaves with an injury
Seven straight wrong picks … put me out of my misery. Last week’s was the icing on the cake, because my selection, Cincinnati Bengals RB Giovani Bernard vs. Dallas Cowboys, fumbled for the first time in 830 carries — the longest active streak in the NFL — and was benched. He finished with three carries, three catches and 5.3 PPR points.
Barf.
Okay, moving on, because what else can one do after such a situation?! The next choice isn’t going to be for the faint of heart, and it’s probably not going to apply to many people in the fantasy football playoffs. It may be best reserved for those in two-quarterback leagues or select DFS action.
Philadelphia Eagles QB Jalen Hurts at Arizona Cardinals
The Eagles turned over the keys to rookie Jalen Hurts last week, and he acquitted himself nicely vs. the New Orleans Saints. While most of the damage from a fantasy perspective came on the ground, he wasn’t entirely dreadful as a passer, and that’s about all one could hope for when surveying what is the Philly offense right now.
Hurts finished the 24-21 win with 17-for-30 passing (56.7 percent), 167 yards, one touchdown throw, and no interceptions. As mentioned, his ground work (18-106-0) is what paved the way for a 23-point showing in traditional fantasy scoring.
A few takeaways that apply to the upcoming matchup: Hurts is not afraid to throw the ball vs. NFL coverage. His mobility was a boost, given the state of this offensive line, and he limited his mistakes to one fumble — hardly an egregious error considering he was sandwiched on the play.
WR Alshon Jeffery returned to the end zone, albeit on his only catch, but it is at least encouraging for a receiving corps that is starving for playmakers. Perhaps we’ll see Zach Ertz take a step in the right direction to look more like himself after a couple of weeks of substandard results since returning from an ankle sprain.
Finally, Hurts’ athleticism creates mismatch and decoy scenarios. The explosiveness of Miles Sanders was on full display — due, in part, to the defensive attention spent to spy on Hurts. It’s not something that necessarily pays off immediately, but repeated fakes, misdirections and setup plays put defenders on their heels, which eventually will create a huge mistake that benefits Hurts.
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Arizona has given up five performances in the last seven games with at least 22.1 fantasy points and as many as 39.8. The two lowly efforts came from passing powerhouses Daniel Jones and Cam Newton. In two of those outings, Russell Wilson ran for a total of 126 yards on 16 carries. Newton rushed nine times for 46 yards, and Jared Goff plunged into the end zone in Week 13.
The Cardinals have regressed in recent weeks vs. the running back position. This matters because Sanders finding success on the ground opens the door for bootlegs and read-option plays for Hurts to find room of his own. Wide receivers have made enough noise to give even this lowly cast in Philadelphia a slight boost.
The game plan is likely to keep Kyler Murray off of the field. That means a bunch of running and controlling the clock. Don’t expect huge plays without there being either a breakdown in coverage or simply a spectacular display of athleticism.
However, this also works both ways in Hurts’ favor.
Let’s say the Cardinals jump out to an early lead, the rookie will be thrown into the fire as a passer and could do some damage with volume. That’s not what one should prefer to see as it likely to lead to more mistakes. The goal here is seeing Hurts maximize his efficiency as a passer and make critical plays with his legs.
My projection: 205 passing yards, 2 TD passes, 1 INT, 65 rushing yards, 1 TD (29.75 fantasy points)